InvestorZclub: September 2011

Friday, September 30, 2011

Trading Idea: Sell Oct Nifty 5400 Call at Rs. 15

Traders can sell October contract of NIFTY 5400 Call at the current market premium of Rs. 15. Considering the global economic headwinds NIFTY is unlikely to go past 5400 by 25th October 2011 when the contract is due for expiry. Hence the option seller will be able to pocket entire premum received. Also this month has very few trading sessions due to festive season and hence the time premium will erode fast.

Return from the trading strategy:

Bharti Airtel is unlikely to come out with an IPO offer for its tower unit in the current financial year that ends in March said Akhil Gupta, deputy group CEO.

Bharti Infratel, the mobile phone carrier's telecom tower arm, was looking at a minimum $500 million IPO, for which it was expected to file regulatory papers in September, but could not due to uncertain market conditions and some objections raised by Vodafone and Idea regarding the listing of Indus Tower before Bharti Infratel.

Low Price to Book value (PBV) Stocks in India - 2011

Price to Book Value is a parameter which Benjamin Graham, the guru of Warren Buffett, loved to use while identifying undervalued stocks. PBV of less than 1 usually suggest that the stock is undervalued. In this depressed market lot of stocks are trading at significant discount to their book values.

InvestorZclub has tried to compile a list of reasonable sized stocks in India having revenue of Rs 500 crore or more and PBV of 0.6 or less as on SEP 29 2011 based on FY-11 financial numbers.

Buy Tata Chemicals - Recommends India Infoline

India Infoline(IIFL) has recommended Tata Chemicals for trading for a possible target of Rs. 335 in 7 trading sessions in its 28th Sep Technical Analysis report.

The closing price of the stock as on 28th Sep was Rs 320.

The target price suggest a 5% return on the current market price.

Warren Buffett's holding company Berksire Hathaway held following stocks in their portfolio as on 30th June 2011. The total value of investments held by berkshire hathaway as on 28th Sep 2011 is $49.6 billion.

The biggest investment held by the company is Coca-Cola which is worth approximately $14 billion.

Cals Refineries - Analysis and Research Report

Cals Refineries Background & Fundamental Analysis

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The company is into integrated refineries and petrochemical business. The company (CALS - Computer Aided Learning Systems) was initially established to develop bilingual computer systems and it came out with an IPO in 1994. In 2007 the company got acquired by Spice Energy Group. The company has plans to set up a total of 20 MMTPA of oil refining capacity in Haldia, West Bengal, in phases, thereby emerging as the third largest oil Refining and petrochemical company in the Indian private sector.

Five year financial snapshot:

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Want to be a millionaire? This calculator calculates how much to invest every month to reach the magical figure of INR 1 crore or $1 million.

Indian Stock Markets: Weekly Review

Both SENSEX and NIFTY witnessed seesaw movement during last week trade. It started the week on a positive note but the global equities tumbled during the second half of the week after US Federal Reserve gloomy outlook on the US economy. A sharp fall in rupee (which signaled huge outflow of money) resulted in a bloodbath on Indian equities on Thursday, as Global sell-off triggered the biggest percentage fall since August 2009.

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Investment Game: Stock Market 60

What is BSE SENSEX and How it is calculated?

What is SENSEX?

The SENSEX is an index / portfolio of 30 stocks of large, well-established and financially sound companies listed on Bombay Stock Exchange in India. It is the short form of SENsitive INdex. It is the oldest index in India and is widely used to measure the performance of the Indian stock markets.

Buy Gujarat Gas Co - Firstcall Research Report

Gujarat Gas Company has been recommended by Firstcall Research in its September 2011 report for a possible target of Rs. 501 in medium term.

The company’s net sales and net profit are expected to grow at a CAGR of 24% and 32% over FY10 to FY13E. GGCL distributes gas to about 325,000 industrial, commercial and domestic customers through a pipeline network of approximately 3850 kms and CNG to over 153,000 vehicles through 42 retail outlets.

QE3 (quantitative easing part 3) has finally come through, but in a different form. This time nobody is cheering. Despite the failure of the previous bond-buying programme, the Federal Reserve, on Wednesday, announced its decision to sell short-term government debt (with maturities of three years or less) worth $400 billion to buy back long-term treasuries of the same amount from the market.

NIFTY 4950 support violated - Could test 4720

Indian stock markets saw panic selling today which brought both the indices SENSEX and NIFTY down by more than 4%. NIFTY today saw the biggest point fall since october 2008. The chance of Greece going default has increased substantially which is creating panic in the system.

NIFTY today breached its crucial support level of 4950 which could drag it to the previous immediate support of 4720. It is advisable to stay on the sidelines and let the panic settle before initiating fresh buy.

Present Value Calculator

Present Value Calculator calculates the present investment needed to reach a specific amount at a future date. This calculator can also be used to gauge the worth of your future receivable today discounted based on say inflation rate. For example if you are expecting X amount after 10 years, what will be the true worth of that amount after 10 years based on todays purchasing power.

You no longer need MS excel to do this calculation, instead you can use the following programmed calulator to calculate the present value.

India Inc Advance Tax payment for Q2 worrisome

Advance Tax payment for the July-Sep quarter of current fiscal by top 100 Corporates in India stood at Rs 31,707 crores vis-a-vis Rs. 28,863 crores in the same quarter of last fiscal, a growth of just 9.9 percent year on year.

Advance tax payment in the first half of current fiscal stood at Rs.48,054 crores against Rs.42,898 crores last year, a growth of 12% YOY.

Forbes Annual billionare list (top 10) - 2011

Forbes rich list of 2011 with pictures. Top 10 US billionares:

The GSM operators in India added just 5.33 million subscribers in August, compared to 7.65 million in the earlier month.

Bharti Airtel, india's largest GSM player, added 1.15 million users in August, taking its total subscriber base to 171.84 million as per COAI. It had 28.09% market share at the end of August.

Vodafone Essar added 1.13 million new subscribers during the month. Its subscriber base reached 144.14 million in August. vodafone had 23.56% market share as of Aug 2011.

Oracle Corp has reported a 36% jump in net income to $1.8 billion for the three-month period ended August 31, 2011, on account of strong sales from its core software business.

In the year-ago period, the company had registered a net income of $1.35 billion.

Buy Petronet LNG - Recommends Goldman Sachs

Petronet LNG stock has been upgraded by Goldman Sachs to buy from neutral with a target of Rs 225 an appreciation of almost 30% from current levels. Goldman expects greater sustainability of its high margins from increased spot LNG volumes.

The current market price of the stock as on 19th Sep 2011 is Rs. 173.40 and commands a market cap of INR 13,000 crores.

Companies with high FII holdings suggest strong fundamentals of the company but on the same time suggest high risk for investors as well. In turbulent times foreign institutional investors sell stocks and pull out money faster than the domestic institutional investors, as result of which the stocks with high FII holdings falls the most.

HDFC, Jain Irrigation, United Spirits, IVRCL, Indiabulls Real Estate are some of the stocks where FII holding is 50 percent or more. Barring HDFC most of these stocks are down more than 50% from their 52 week high.

Following is the list of stocks in India where FII's are holding more than one third of the company shares as of september 2011.

ONGC,GAIL FY 2011-2012 Subsidy Sharing

Upstream oil companies like ONGC, Oil india Limited and GAIL bear one-third of the revenue that retailers lose on selling diesel, domestic LPG and Kerosene at government-controlled rates. A similar amount is contributed by the government by way of cash subsidy while the rest is either absorbed by the retailers or passed on to consumers.

The estimated revenue loss to the government prior to June fuel price hike and duty cuts is Rs. 1.71 lakh crores. Post duty rejig and a Rs 3 per litre hike in diesel, Rs 2 per litre increase in kerosene and Rs 50 per cylinder hike in domestic LPG rates, the revenue loss now is estimated at Rs 1.14 lakh crore.

"Buffett Tax" refers to billionare US investor Warren Buffett, who wrote earlier this year that rich people like him pay less in tax than those who work for them due to loopholes in the tax code, and can afford to pay more.

Obama in a populist step designed to appeal to voters, has proposed the Buffett Tax on people making $1 million a year as part of his deficit reduction program.

The tax would act as a kind of "Alternative Minimum Tax" aimed at ensuring millionaires pay a minimum rate of tax that at least matches that of middle class families.

Stock Market Game: Stock Brokers Suicide

Stock Brokers are commiting suicide because of hopeless stock markets which keeps going down everday. It is up to you to save as many as you can.

BSE Responds NSE: Plans Listing of NASDAQ 100

After National Stock Exchange listed the Dow Jones Industrial (DJIA) and S&P 500 on its platform last week, the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) is all set to respond by listing the US-based Nasdaq 100 index.

The Nasdaq index does not contain financial companies, which differentiates it from the Dow. The Nasdaq 100 was launched in January 1985 on the US-based Nasdaq exchange platform, that was promoting itself in the shadow of the New York Stock Exchange.

SENSEX and NIFTY traded choppy with high volatility during last week (16th Sep 2011) trade and has closed the week on a flat note on weekly basis.

Nifty started the week with a gap down action below 5000 levels but has managed to hold on to the 4900 support despite all the volatility. Nifty bounced back during the mid of the week and tested the short term resistance area of 5150 on Friday's trade.

RIM (Research in Motion) Q2 FY 2011-2012 Result & Valuation Analysis

Blackberry Maker RIM reported Q2 net income at $329 million vs. $797 million which it reported in the same quarter last year, down 59%.

Revenue came in at $4.2 billion vs. $4.6 billion in Q2 previous year, down 9%.

The company's total cash, cash equivalents, short-term and long-term investments amounted to $1.4 billion as of August 27, 2011, compared to $2.9 billion at the end of the previous three-month period, a decrease of $1.5 billion.

"Uses of cash included strategic purchases of intellectual property assets associated with RIM's participation in a consortium of companies that successfully bid to acquire Nortel Networks Corporation's patent portfolio, of which RIM's cost is approximately $780 million, capital expenditures of approximately $285 million and working capital requirements," the company said

Petrol Prices hiked by Rs.3 per liter - High Impact on Auto Industry

Due to weak Indian Rupee and high international crude prices, State owned oil companies IOCL, BPCL & HPCL have raised the petrol prices by Rs. 2.61, effective midnight. After adding local taxes, the hike needed at retail level comes to over Rs 3 per litre.

Petrol price was freed from the government control in June last year but the retail rates have not moved in line with cost as high inflation rate forced the oil companies to seek 'advice' from parent oil ministry before revising rates. Petrol price were last hiked by Rs 5 per litre on May 15.

For all budding Technical Analysts and Chartists there is always a question on where to do real time technical analysis on Indian stocks and that too without incurring any cost. Many people end up buying expensive softwares which promise lot of advanced automatic analysis and recommendations but practically speaking no such software is ever built that will give you sure shot recommendations. Its upto the analyst to arrive at conclusion based on the evident patterns.

The world's biggest and most successful chartists still prefer to do technical analysis on paper. But now a days with advanced software technologies lot of time can be saved if charts and patterns are plotted using computers. Now why pay for charting softwares when you can perform fairly high level of technical analysis online and that to absolutely free.

Following are some of my preferred places where you can perform free technical analysis of Indian Markets and Stocks online.

The stock markets in India closed with handsome gains in today's session after trading with deep losses in the morning. Sensex recovered more than 300 points from the low point of the day. Positive opening of Europe provided triggers to the markets and the rally was mostly driven by interest rate sensitive sectors like realty, banking and auto.

IT also closed with significant gains and oil & gas and consumer durables, too, provided support to the indices. Capital goods and FMCG were the only two sectors that closed negative.

Buy Ruchi Soya - India Infoline Research Report

Ruchi Soya has been recently recommended by IIFL in the range of Rs. 107 - 107.5 with a target price of Rs. 112.5 keeping a stop loss at Rs. 105 in its September 14, 2011 technical analysis report.

Download the detailed report from the following link:

Risk is an important consideration in holding any portfolio. The risk in holding securities is generally associated with the possibility that realised returns will be less than the returns expected.

Risks can be classified as Systematic risks and Unsystematic risks.

Benjamin Graham Interview

A short transcript of an interview with the father of value investing , Sir Benjamin Graham, taken way back in 1960.

Question - Can the average manager of institutional funds obtain better results than the Dow Jones Industrial Average or the S&P Index over the years?

Answer - No. In effect, that would mean that the stock market experts as a whole could beat themselves--a logical contradiction.

Question - Do you think, therefore, that the average institutional client should be content with the DJIA results or the equivalent?

Economy out of the woods - Humor

Beta Values of NSE NIFTY Stocks

Beta is the measure of correlation of the stock with the index. A beta value of 1 suggest that when market moves by 1% the stock will move by 1%.

Following is the list of stocks in NSE NIFTY 50 index with their corresponding Beta values as on August 2011.

NIFTY Index comprise of top 50 stocks listed in National Stock Exchange in terms of free float market capitalization.

The weightage of individual stocks in the index as on August 2011 is as below:

IIP growth fell to a dismal 3.3% in July this year on account of poor performance mainly by capital goods, manufacturing and mining sectors, confirming the slow down in economy due to higher interest rates. During the April-July period of this fiscal, IIP growth stood at 5.8%, as against 9.7% in the corresponding four-month period last year.

Disappointing IIP data and negative global cues took their toll on the markets and both SENSEX & NIFTY closed with huge losses.

All sectoral indices closed negative with IT, metal, banking, realty and consumer durables the worst among them. Other sectors that closed deeply in the red include auto, capital goods and oil & gas. FMCG was the only sector that closed with moderate losses.

Buy Pidilite Industries - InvestorZclub Research Report

Ye FEVICOL ka mazboot jod hai tootega nahin. Yes we are talking about the company which own India's must trusted adhesive brand "FEVICOL". Pidilite Industries is a leading manufacturer of speciality chemicals in India. It produces adhesives, sealants, construction and paint chemicals, automotive chemicals, art materials, industrial adhesives, industrial and textile resins, and organic pigments and preparations. The company’s major brands include Fevicol, Fevikwik, and Dr. Fixit. It currently exports to more than 80 countries and has 14 overseas subsidiaries. Moreover, it has significant manufacturing and sales operations in USA, Brazil, Thailand, Singapore, Bangladesh, Egypt and Dubai.

Suzlon is the world’s third largest wind turbine manufacturer and has recently won order from Germany to supply 47 turbines with a combined output of around 115 MW.

Commenting on the trend, BOA Merrill Lynch says the company’s business visibility has improved, with the group winning 214 Mw of orders in the last two weeks. Of this, 163 Mw of orders are in India, while REPower has won a 51-Mw order.

CRISIL Ltd - The Super Multibagger Of Last Decade

Sharekhan is bullish on Selan Exploration Tech and has recommended buy rating on the stock with a target of Rs 500 in its 6th Sep research report. The report says that at the current market price the stock is available at 4.5x FY2012E and 2.7x FY2013E of EV/ EBITDA multiple.

Download the report from the following link:

The Indian markets closed with significant losses today and barring consumer durables, all sectoral indices closed negative.

The Sensex closed at 16841 (provisional), down 325 points from its previous close, and the Nifty closed at 5047 (provisional), down 106 points.

The CNX Midcap index was down 1.4% and the BSE Smallcap index lost 0.8%.

The market breadth was negative with advances at 490 against declines of 954 on the NSE.

INR vs USD 1 Year Chart

NIFTY Trading Strategy: SELL 5600 Call at Rs. 8.5

Option Traders can sell september contract of NIFTY 5600 Call at the current market premium of Rs. 8.5. Since NIFTY has already rallied 8% in past 4-5 trading sessions on the back of short covering, it seems highly unlikely that it will cross 5600 by the end of this month expiry on 29th SEP 2011.

The return from this strategy is:

Facebook, which accounted for nearly one-third of all Internet display advertisement impressions in the United States in June, reported a revenue of $1.6 billion in FY 2011-2012 first half. Net income in the first half came to almost $500 million.

Facebook earned $355 million in net income in the first nine months of 2010 on revenue of $1.2 billion, according to documents that Goldman Sachs provided to clients during a share offering this year.

Food inflation is down to 9.55% for the week ended August 27 after breaching 10% in the previous week.

Prices of pulses fell by 1.56% year-on-year, while wheat became cheaper by 1.04% during the week ended August 27.

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Introduction to Mutual Funds
What is a Mutual Fund?
Why invest in Mutual Funds?
Types of Mutual Funds
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How to choose a Mutual fund?

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Company	Max Price	Target (Rs. Crore)	Open	Close
Allied Digital	140	28	25-Apr-11	17-Feb-12
Deccan Chronicle	180	270	16-May-11	3-Jan-12
FDC	135	50	18-Feb-11	25-Jan-12
HEG	350	68	11-Apr-11	13-Mar-12
Infinite Computer	230	27	6-May-11	10-Apr-12
Reliance Infra	725	1000	11-Apr-11	13-Feb-12
SRF	380	90	6-Apr-11	25-Feb-12
Zee Entertainment Onmobile Global *	126	700	27-Jul-11	23-Mar-12

Yahoo Inc has fired CEO Carol Bartz, and named Chief Financial Officer Tim Morse as interim chief executive. Carol Bartz was brought on board two years ago to turn around the company’s troubled fortunes.

In an e-mail message to employees titled ‘Goodbye’, Ms Bartz, 62, said she is "very sad to tell you that I have just been fired over the phone by Yahoo’s chairman of the board’’. "It has been my pleasure to work with all of you and I wish you only the best going forward," she wrote.

Rakesh Jhunjhunwala to buy stake in Pipavav Shipyard

Rakesh Jhunjhunwala is likely to invest in Pipavav Shipyard through convertible share warrants. He is expected to acquire significant minority stake in the company.

Pipavav Shipyard Ltd has informed the BSE that a meeting of the board of directors will be held on 6th Sep 2011 to consider the issue of convertible warrants.

At present, the promoter group holds 45 per cent stake in Pipavav. Among public investors, Ovira Logistics holds about 7.67 per cent while Foreign Investors Institutions (FIIs) such as Smallcap World Fund Inc (6.05) and New York Life Investment (2.8) hold stake in Pipavav. Public holding in Pipavav stands at 36.23 per cent.

Japan's benchmark index Nikkei average fell 2.2% to 8,590.57 on Tuesday to a two and half year closing low after sovereign debt fears pummelled European stocks. The broader Topix index fell 1.9% to 741.20.

Some 2.1 billion shares changed hands on the Tokyo stock exchange today, higher than last week's average volume of 1.81 billion shares.

Buy JSW Steel - Recommends Prabhudas Lilladhar

Prabhudas Lilladhar has recommended buying JSW steel for a price target of Rs. 753.

Download the detailed research report from the following link:

Buy Mphasis - Recommends Angel Broking

Angel Broking has recommended buy on Mphasis at the CMP of Rs. 396 for a target of Rs. 420 in 12 months.

Download the research report from the following link:

UBS has cut its year-end target for BSE Sensex by 2000 points to 19,000 from its earlier projection of 21,000. For NIFTY the March 2012 target is revised down to 5,900 from its earlier target of 6,500.

Terming FII outflow as one of the biggest concerns of the Indian stock market, UBS said: "In the absence of severe FII outflows, Indian markets should find support at current levels. However, if we see significant FII outflows, the Indian stock markets can correct further by 15-20%"

Essar pays money to maoists in chhattisgarh: Wikileaks

Ruia's promoted Essar group pays protection money to maoists to safeguard its operations in chattisgarh, where the group is having large mining interest, says the cable.

The wikileak said that the Maoists pose a real threat to development and security in the region and efforts to bring these areas back into the government control is warranted. A senior representative from Consul General Office says that the company pays the Maoists a significant amount not to harm or interfere with their operations," a cable dated January 11, 2010, released by WikiLeaks stated.

"When the Maoists occasionally break this agreement and damage Essar property or threaten personnel, Essar sets different Maoist groups against each other to suppress the situation," it said.

Gold prices touched fresh high of Rs 29,091 per 10 grams today, as concerns about slowing economic growth and Europe's debt crisis spurred demand for the precious metal as a safe haven investment.

Market analysts attributed the skyrocketing gold futures prices, which hit an all-time high, to a firming trend overseas as renewed fears over the euro zone debt crisis and concerns about stalled global growth boosted the attractiveness of the precious metal in investors' eyes.

China's GDP growth may drop below 9% in 2012 due to the overall slowdown in global growth. China's GDP grew by 10.3% in 2010 while in 2008 and 2009 it maintained the annual growth of more than 9%. The last sub 9% growth was in 2001, when the economy expanded by only 8.3%. China's economy is highly dependent on Europe and North America, for its exports to these regions.

Friday, September 30, 2011

Thursday, September 29, 2011

Wednesday, September 28, 2011

Sunday, September 25, 2011

Saturday, September 24, 2011

Friday, September 23, 2011

Thursday, September 22, 2011

Wednesday, September 21, 2011

Tuesday, September 20, 2011

Monday, September 19, 2011

Sunday, September 18, 2011

Saturday, September 17, 2011

Friday, September 16, 2011

Thursday, September 15, 2011

Wednesday, September 14, 2011

Tuesday, September 13, 2011

Monday, September 12, 2011

Saturday, September 10, 2011

Friday, September 9, 2011

Thursday, September 8, 2011

Wednesday, September 7, 2011

Tuesday, September 6, 2011