U.S Govt Structure

What is Congress in the USA?

What Happened During Tulip Mania?

Tulip Mania is one of the most famous speculative bubbles in history. It took place in the Dutch Republic (now the Netherlands) in the early 17th century, reaching its peak in 1636-1637 before crashing dramatically.

Timeline of Tulip Mania:

Railway Mania (1840s) vs. Dot-Com Bubble (1999-2000) – A Detailed Comparison

 Both Railway Mania and the Dot-Com Bubble were driven by revolutionary technologies that changed the world. However, they also saw massive speculation, unrealistic valuations, and an eventual crash. Let's break them down across multiple parameters:

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1. The Core Technology Behind the Boom

Parameter	Railway Mania (1840s)	Dot-Com Bubble (1999-2000)
Main Tech Revolution	Railways, steam locomotives, and faster transportation networks.	The Internet, digital connectivity, and online businesses.
Core Value Proposition	Faster movement of goods and people, reducing travel time by 90%.	Instant access to information, digital commerce, and global connectivity.
Actual Impact	Railways reshaped economies and made industrialization much faster.	The Internet changed communication, shopping, finance, and business forever.

Investment Thesis: Goodricke Group Ltd. - A High-Conviction Bet on the Indian Tea Sector Turnaround

Investment Rationale

The Indian tea sector is at an inflection point after a decade-long downturn. Government interventions, supply constraints, and rising domestic demand indicate that the cycle is turning. Goodricke Group Ltd., backed by the multinational Camellia Plc, stands out as one of the few well-managed, high-quality tea producers in India. With a strong balance sheet, premium tea gardens, and high promoter holding (74%), Goodricke presents a compelling investment case for significant capital appreciation.

Hinduja Group's Ashok Leyland Share Pledge - A strategic move?

The Hinduja Group has pledged around 30 crore shares of Ashok Leyland (mkt cap ~ 60k crores), the group's flagship company in India. The pledge was created through Hinduja Automotive, a UK-based holding company and a key part of the Hinduja Group, which serves as the primary vehicle through which the Hinduja family holds its stake in Ashok Leyland.

As of 31 December 2024, promoters held 51.10% stake in Ashok Leyland. Hinduja Automotive held 34.72%.

Uncertainty Vs. Risk

Investing is often seen as a game of numbers, but it is just as much a game of psychology. One of the biggest lessons that long-term investors learn is that 

markets tend to overreact to uncertainty rather than to actual risk. This distinction is critical because uncertainty creates opportunities for those who can see beyond short-term noise and focus on long-term value.

Understanding the Difference Between Risk and Uncertainty

• Risk is measurable; it can be quantified and hedged against. For example, if a company operates in a cyclical industry, investors can analyze past cycles to gauge the extent of earnings volatility.

• Uncertainty, on the other hand, is when there isn’t enough information to make a precise assessment. It causes markets to react with fear, often leading to excessive pessimism.

Investors who can differentiate between the two and take advantage of overreactions to uncertainty often unlock massive wealth creation opportunities.

What made IndusInd bank a great franchise? Is that franchise lost?

IndusInd Bank has historically been admired in the banking industry for several reasons, making it one of the standout franchises in Indian banking. Here’s why it earned that reputation:

1. Strong Leadership & Execution:

• The bank was transformed under Romesh Sobti’s leadership (2008-2020), who built a high-growth, high-profitability banking model.
• Sobti and his team (ex-ABN AMRO executives) focused on risk-adjusted lending, superior underwriting, and niche market dominance.

Divi’s Lab (2017) vs. IndusInd Bank (2024): Similar Setback-Recovery Pattern?

1. Big Shock Event:

   • Divi’s Lab → USFDA import alert (key revenue source hit) → Stock crashed 20%+ in a day
   • IndusInd Bank → Derivative loss + market panic → Stock fell 30%+ in a few days

2. Underlying Business Strength:

   • Divi’s had a strong API business, industry leadership, and good financials, despite the short-term issue.
   • IndusInd has high CASA, strong retail franchise, and well-managed asset quality (unlike Yes Bank/RBL Bank).

Business Turnaround vs Sentiment Turnaround

One strategy that many investors deploy is betting on turnarounds including myself and I am always on the lookout for a turnaround as that creates maximum wealth in the shortest period of time. 

Now what I have experienced is that there are two types of turnarounds:

1. Business Turnaround

2. Sentiment Turnaround

Has Jane street gone away? Lets find out

 Let’s dive into how large institutions with deep pockets—like hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, or FPIs—exploited the earlier, looser position limit rules for index derivatives in India to generate profits or influence intraday volatility, and why the new maximum position limits (effective 2025) deter such strategies.

How Institutions Took Advantage Under Earlier Rules (Pre-November 2024)

Is Indian Tea Industry Dynamics changing for good?

 In 2012, large tea estates were the primary producers of tea in India, contributing approximately 75% of the total tea production, while small tea growers (STGs) accounted for about 25%. It is 45% now and 55% is ontributed by STG as on 2023 production data.

the growing dominance of small tea growers (STGs) over large estates is a major reason for the dire state of the Indian tea industry. Here’s why:

What is the capital adequacy or equivalent of US banks. Are they lower than Indian banks?

 Yes, large U.S. banks generally have lower Capital Adequacy Ratios (CAR) compared to Indian banks. Let’s break it down:

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1. Capital Adequacy Ratio (CAR) - India vs. U.S. Banks

Why RBL Bank Valuation derated in 2019

 RBL Bank's stock collapsed massively between July 2019 and September 2019 due to a combination of corporate governance concerns, asset quality fears, and broader market panic. Here’s a detailed breakdown of what triggered the sharp fall:

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1. Rising Concerns Over Corporate Governance

• July 2019: There were rumors of governance issues, but the bank denied them.
• August 2019: Vishwavir Ahuja (CEO) sold a significant portion of his RBL Bank shares, raising investor concerns.
  • He later clarified that the sale was to cover tax liabilities, but the damage was done.
  • The market interpreted this as a lack of confidence in the bank's future.
• This came right after Yes Bank’s crisis, making investors more nervous about mid-sized private banks.

👉 Impact: The stock began correcting as governance fears emerged.

Why Turkey is weaker than Indian inspite of higher GDP per capita

 As of 2023, Turkey's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita is approximately $14,713.57 in current U.S. dollars.

Over the past decade, Turkey's GDP per capita has experienced fluctuations due to various economic factors. Here's a summary of the recent trends:

• 2020: $8,639
• 2021: $9,743 (12.79% increase)
• 2022: $10,675 (9.56% increase)
• 2023: $12,986 (21.65% increase)

What Happens in the First 30 Days After a Scandal or Crisis?

 When a major crisis breaks out for a bank or financial institution, the stock tends to follow a typical pattern in the first 30 days. Below is a summary based on historical cases:

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📉 1. Immediate Crash (Days 1-5)

• Stock falls sharply (typically 10-30% in the first few days).
• Investors panic due to uncertainty and liquidity rushes out of the stock.
• Negative news headlines dominate media coverage, amplifying fear.
• Short sellers take aggressive positions.

✅ Example:

• Wells Fargo (2016): Fell ~10% in 3 days after the fake accounts scandal.
• IndusInd Bank (2024): Already fell ~15-20% in a few days after the derivative issue came out.

Past Banking Crisis and recovery time

 1. For a 40% move from the bottom:

Based on historical banking scandals and recoveries, the average time required for a 40% rise from the low is approximately 235 days (~8 months).

Breakdown of Recovery Times:

• Wells Fargo (2016): ~180 days (~6 months)
• American Express (1963): ~365 days (~1 year)
• JP Morgan (2012): ~150 days (~5 months)
• Axis Bank (2017): ~210 days (~7 months)
• ICICI Bank (2018, Chanda Kochhar Issue): ~270 days (~9 months)

London Whale trading scandal at JPMorgan Chase in 2012

 What Happened?

• A trader named Bruno Iksil, based in JPMorgan’s London office, was part of the bank’s Chief Investment Office (CIO).
• The CIO was supposed to hedge the bank’s risks but ended up making huge speculative bets on credit default swaps (CDS).
• Iksil took such large positions in the derivatives market that other traders began calling him the "London Whale" due to the sheer size of his trades.
• These trades backfired, leading to $6.2 billion in losses for JPMorgan.

The 2016 Wells Fargo Scandal – Fake Accounts Controversy

 In 2016, Wells Fargo (WFC) faced one of the biggest banking scandals in U.S. history, leading to a 20% stock price decline and severe reputational damage.

🔎 What Happened?

• Fraudulent Accounts Scandal: Employees opened millions of fake bank and credit card accounts without customer consent to meet aggressive sales targets.
• Unrealistic Cross-Selling Goals: The bank pushed employees to sell multiple products per customer (e.g., savings, credit cards, loans). This led to unethical practices where employees created unauthorized accounts.
• Pressure from Top Management: Employees were threatened with job loss if they failed to meet high sales quotas.

Warren Buffett’s Investment in Commonwealth Trust Company - Analysis

Warren Buffett’s investment in Commonwealth Trust Company is one of his lesser-known but highly profitable early deals. It showcases his deep value investing approach—buying a strong but undervalued business at a time when others ignored it.

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1. Background of the Investment

• Commonwealth Trust Company was a small bank based in Pennsylvania.
• It was a highly conservative, well-run bank with strong assets and a history of stable performance.
• The bank had no major problems, but it was being overlooked by the market at the time.

What went wrong in axis bank in 2017

 In 2017, Axis Bank faced multiple challenges that affected its performance and reputation. Here are some key issues that emerged during that period:

1. Rising Non-Performing Assets (NPAs):

• The bank reported a sharp increase in NPAs, leading to concerns over asset quality.
• Gross NPAs surged from 5.22% in March 2017 to 5.99% in September 2017, reflecting stress in corporate loans.
• The bank had significant exposure to large stressed corporate accounts that turned bad.

what kind of frauds were detected in Yes bank from 2017 - 2020?

Between 2017 and 2020, Yes Bank was embroiled in several fraudulent activities and governance lapses that significantly impacted its financial health. Key issues identified during this period include:

1. Underreporting of Non-Performing Assets (NPAs): The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) discovered that Yes Bank had significantly underreported its NPAs. In 2017, the bank's actual bad loans were found to be five times higher than what was disclosed to the government.

Why Indusind Bank commanded high valuation before 2018 but low now?

Before 2018, IndusInd Bank consistently traded at a premium valuation compared to most other banking stocks in India. Here’s why investors assigned a higher Price-to-Book (P/B) and Price-to-Earnings (P/E) multiple to the bank:

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1. Strong Loan Growth & Superior Profitability

• Loan book growth: IndusInd Bank delivered industry-leading loan growth (~25-30% CAGR) in the years leading up to 2018, much faster than peers like ICICI Bank and Axis Bank.
• Higher ROE & ROA:
  • Return on Equity (ROE): Consistently around 15-18%, significantly higher than many PSU and even some private banks.
  • Return on Assets (ROA): Above 1.5%, a benchmark of high profitability in banking.

How Arbitrage funds manage sudden restrictions on derivative trading in a stock

 If derivative positions are restricted for a month in a stock, arbitrage funds that depend on taking counter positions in the cash and derivatives market will face significant challenges. Here’s what could happen:

1. Arbitrage Opportunities Vanish

• Arbitrage funds rely on price differences between the cash market (spot price) and the futures market.
• If derivatives trading is restricted, there will be no futures market to hedge positions, making it impossible for arbitrage funds to execute their usual strategies.

Charlie Munger's Wells Fargo Investment in 2008 crisis

 During the 2008 financial crisis, Wells Fargo's stock price experienced significant fluctuations:

• 52-Week High: Approximately $38.90 per share.
• 52-Week Low: Approximately $7.80 per share.

Charlie Munger, serving as chairman of the Daily Journal Corporation, made a strategic investment in Wells Fargo during this tumultuous period:

• Investment Amount: Approximately $20 million, sourced from Treasury bonds.
• Acquisition Price: Shares were purchased at around $7 per share, totaling just under 1.6 million shares.

The Salad Oil Crisis & American Express (1963)

 The Salad Oil Crisis was a major financial scandal that hit American Express (AmEx) in 1963. It was caused by Anthony "Tino" De Angelis, a commodities trader who ran Allied Crude Vegetable Oil Company. He took massive loans using falsified collateral—tanks supposedly filled with soybean oil that actually contained mostly water.

Since American Express was heavily involved in warehousing and certifying collateral for loans, they were directly implicated when the fraud was uncovered. The company faced huge liabilities and its reputation was severely damaged.

ICICI Bank faced similar crisis during 2015 to 2017 period

 ICICI Bank faced several controversies and adverse news reports between 2015 and 2017. Here are some of the biggest issues:

1. Videocon Loan Controversy (2016-2018)

• One of the most significant scandals that surfaced was related to a conflict of interest in loans extended to the Videocon Group.
• It was alleged that ICICI Bank, under then-CEO Chanda Kochhar, sanctioned ₹3,250 crore in loans to Videocon Group.
• Later, a company linked to her husband, Deepak Kochhar’s NuPower Renewables, received investments from Videocon’s chairman Venugopal Dhoot.
• This raised allegations of quid pro quo, misuse of power, and lack of transparency.
• Eventually, this controversy led to Chanda Kochhar stepping down in 2018.

How RBI’s Ban on Internal Trades Affects Indian Banks

How RBI’s Ban on Internal Trades Affects Indian vs. Foreign Banks (Like HSBC)

RBI’s September 2023 directive prevents banks in India from using internal trades for currency and interest rate risk management. Instead, they must use external market instruments for hedging. However, this rule impacts Indian banks and foreign banks (like HSBC) operating in India differently.

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🔵 Impact on Indian Banks (SBI, HDFC, ICICI, etc.)

Longevity diet plan

 🔹 Updated Longevity Diet Plan (with Morbon XT & Vitamin C included)

How to beat Trading Algorithms

In USA over 80% while in India over 50% of trades are executed by trading algorithms. Beating trading algorithms, also known as algos, can be challenging, as these computer programs are designed to execute trades based on a set of pre-determined rules and conditions, and they can execute trades faster and more efficiently than humans. However, there are a few strategies that traders and investors can use to try to gain an edge over algos:

Use fundamental analysis: Algos are typically based on technical analysis, so focusing on fundamental analysis and understanding the underlying value of a security can provide a different perspective that algos may not be able to replicate.

Use market knowledge: Algos cannot account for market nuances such as emotions, politics and other market factors that may affect the market. By keeping informed on market events and understanding how they may affect the market, traders can gain an edge over algos.

Use diverse data sets: Algos may only use a specific set of data, so by using a diverse set of data, such as alternative data, traders can gain insights that algos may not be able to replicate.

Be flexible: Algos are based on a set of pre-determined rules, so they may not be able to adapt to unexpected market conditions. By being flexible and willing to adjust strategies as needed, traders can gain an edge over algos.

Trade less liquid markets: Algos tend to focus on highly liquid markets, so by trading in less liquid markets, traders can gain an edge over algos.

It's important to keep in mind that these strategies are not guaranteed to be successful, and that the performance of algos can be influenced by a variety of factors such as market conditions, the quality of data, and the design of the algorithm. Additionally, it's important to keep in mind that beating algos is not the only goal, it's important to focus on creating a profitable strategy.

Limitations of Trading Algos: Trading algorithms are designed to automatically execute trades based on a set of pre-determined rules and conditions. While algos can provide many benefits, such as executing trades faster and more efficiently than humans, they also have certain limitations. Here are a few examples:

Lack of human judgement: Algos do not have the ability to exercise human judgement or interpret market conditions in the same way that a human trader might. This can lead to missed opportunities or mistakes.

Complexity: Some algos can be very complex, and require a high level of expertise to design, test, and implement. This can limit their accessibility to traders and investors.

Data dependency: Algos rely on accurate and up-to-date data to function properly, so if the data is inaccurate or not current, the algorithm may make incorrect decisions.

Lack of flexibility: Algos are based on a set of pre-determined rules and conditions, so they may not be able to adapt to unexpected market conditions or changes.

Limited decision making: Algos can only make decisions based on the information and rules programmed into them, so it may not take into account other important factors such as emotions, politics and other market nuances.

Risk of over-fitting: Algos can be over-fitted to the historical data, which means they may not work well in real-world situations and may lead to poor performance.

Lack of transparency: Some algos can be proprietary and not transparent, which makes it difficult to understand how they make decisions and evaluate their performance.

Common Algo Trading Strategies: There are many different types of algorithmic trading strategies, but some of the most common ones include:

Market making: This strategy involves using algorithms to automatically buy and sell securities to create liquidity in the market.

Statistical Arbitrage: This strategy involves using algorithms to identify and take advantage of statistical anomalies in the market.

High-Frequency Trading (HFT): This strategy uses algorithms to execute a high volume of trades in a very short time period, typically taking advantage of small price discrepancies.

Trend Following: This strategy involves using algorithms to identify and follow trends in the market.

Mean Reversion: This strategy involves using algorithms to identify and take advantage of securities that are under- or over-valued.

Event-Driven: This strategy involves using algorithms to identify and take advantage of market-moving events such as earnings announcements, mergers and acquisitions.

Pair trading: This strategy involves using algorithms to identify pairs of securities that are highly correlated and buying and selling them to profit from their relative performance.

Risk Management: This strategy involves using algorithms to monitor and manage risk in a portfolio.

It's important to keep in mind that these strategies are not mutually exclusive, and many algorithmic trading strategies involve elements of multiple strategies. Additionally, new strategies are constantly being developed, and the effectiveness of a strategy can change over time depending on market conditions, competition, and other factors.

Oil and Gas is not dead yet

Elon Musk says the world still needs oil. “Realistically I think we need to use oil and gas in the short term, because otherwise civilization will crumble," Musk said on the sidelines of an energy conference in the southern city of Stavanger.

In my view India will need another 10-20 years after the world transition to clean energy as the technology has to be affordable for India to adopt it fully. Many ideas can be executed on that theme as the stocks are severely battered in Oil & Gas sector. Unfortunately there is not much direct play on this space in private sector. I am averse to PSU companies so ONGC, OIL, GAIL, Coal India etc are out of investing universe for me.

But there is a drilling company named Jindal drilling which can be looked at. A small oil exploration company Selan Exploration which underwent management change recently can be looked at as well. 

Adding > 10% of model portfolio to Selan exploration and ~ 3% to Jindal Drilling.

Model Portfolio: https://www.investorzclub.com/2013/03/amit-agarwals-model-portfolio.html

TV Today Network Analysis april 2022

 # The company is expected to report better revenue and earnings compared to March 2021 quarter primarily due to up elections and economy opening up. 

# I am expecting the company to do a revenue of at least 250 crores and 75 crores of operating profit.

# Based on this assumption TVTN is expected to close the year with the following financial performance:

        Revenue: 938 crores (ATH)

        OP: 272 crores (ATH)

        PBT: 270 crores (ATH)

        Tax @ 26% = 70 crores (ATH)

        NP: 200 crores (ATH)

        EPS @ 6 crores equity shares = 33.3, (ATH)

        ROE: 20%

        EPS growth: 50%, 5 yr CAGR of 15%

        10 year CAGR profit growth = 35%, 

        Market price in april 2012 ~ 60. 

# Valuation: @ cmp of ~ 410, the stock is valued at 12.3 times current year earnings and a pre tax yield of roughly 11%

# if the earnings are valued at modest 15 times and cash equiv per share of 100 added, the target that can be aimed at is 500 + 100 = 600 /-

# So a conservative target of 600 can be aimed for in next 3 months if there is no major geopolitical shock.

# Ideally a company which does 50% growth in earnings in a year can also get valued @ 30 times earnings in buoyant market conditions. If such ideal scenario plays out the stock can even reach levels of ~1000 in next 1 year time frame.

# Also ideally the stock price performs inline with profit growth over long term. Hence a 35% cagr in stock price from 60 levels ( april 2012) gives a target price of 1200.

Downside: Considering the kind of performance the company is doing, it is highly unlikely that the stock will fall below 10 times earnings. Hence there seems a max  possible downside of 330.so for 80/- kind of risk, there is a potential to make 2.5 times risk in modest case and even 8 times in case of blue sky scenario.

On chart also the stock recently bottomed out @ 357 and the structure appears bullish:

https://www.tradingview.com/x/O65VW2EF/

All time high of the stock = 557.95 (16th mar 2018)

The Casino Market - Will this madness ever end?

Having spent 15 years in Indian Stock market, there has never been a time when it felt like absolute chaos and gambling den. Across the globe people are buying and selling stocks not for investment but for story and for speculation.

I come from old school of buying / investing in assets at reasonable prices whether its real estate, share in companies (equities), websites/blogs etc which has at least one of the two essential characteristics:  

1. It gives me cash flow 

2. Holds its value without much fluctuation.

Of all the assets I own, equities have clearly become a non-investable asset class. Its neither giving me even a bare minimum cash flow due to absurd valuations nor holding its value stable. The price fluctuations are so monstrously large that its beyond anybody’s capacity to comprehend. We are adding and losings trillions of dollars in market value in a year based on perception and story. This is extremely unhealthy for equities as an asset class as subconsciously investors lose confidence on ownership in companies and they refuse to buy at any price when prices start to fall.

Compare it with an asset class such as Real Estate or Gold. When real estate prices in your neighborhood corrects people won’t hesitate to commit money and there is floor to the prices. They know they can use to for shelter, shop or rent depending on the nature of the property. Similar is the situation with Gold. When prices correct even 10% people rush to purchase gold jewelry for wedding or investment. Stocks on the other hand are losing and gaining 10, 20 or even 50% in a day. This makes it very hard for people to stay invested which is a very dangerous situation for capitalism and stock market where companies sell ownership.

Individual companies are valued at trillions of dollars these days. Apple + Google + Microsoft is valued at over 5.5 trillion dollar which is 2 times the UK economy.  Companies are no longer being valued on earnings and sales and value investing is claimed to be dead. People are valuing stories. I asked myself yesterday, will I invest in a real estate property with excellent story but no cash flow for next 10 years and the answer was absolute ‘NO’. So how Can I invest in stocks with 100 pe multiples where theoretically it will take 100 years to get back my money.

All the money printing in the world has already created massive Inflation is paper assets which will eventually flow into good and services creating massive consumer inflation which will force the madness of Central banks worldwide to end this mindless money printing. It might happen in next 3 months or it might take another 3 years who knows, but valuation have always been my guiding torch and I won’t be leaving its company specially in this time of madness even if the pundits across the world says it’s dead. Common sense can never be dead. It’s the greed at that moment that is trying to make us all believe that common sense is for fools. But those who have developed grey hairs like me while being in the market will resonate with my thoughts that the protection of capital is far, far, far more important than appreciation of capital.

Sometimes writing your thoughts makes the big picture even more clear and helps you in taking good decision. I have written this post during market hour today as I felt tired watching the madness in the market and thought of spending some quality time penning my thoughts. This post will also help me in future to go back in time and read what I used to think back then.

 

Equity Portfolio Update - 20th Jan 2021

 # Exiting all the stock positions to go 100% cash.

# Primary reason being the market on steroid which is exactly the opposite of what was happening in march 2020. At 40 time pe multiple based on FY-20 EPS the market is extremely overvalued and stretched. Even if we assume FY-23 Nifty EPS of 700 (almost double of FY-20), it is still trading at 20 times forward multiple.

# At mid sized bank the deposit is yielding 8% or 12.5 pe multiple while the stock market is trading at 40 times on TTM basis and 20 times on an optimistic eps assumption for FY-23 FY. I would rather keep my money in debt rather take risk on stock at current levels. Hence the cash call.

Please check the updated portfolio on what was sold and where has the cash been parked.

https://www.investorzclub.com/2013/03/amit-agarwals-model-portfolio.html

Equity Portfolio Update: 7th Jan 2021

Model  Equity Portfolio Update after 1.5 years. Encashed most of the stocks barring one. Please check the updated portfolio for more details:

https://www.investorzclub.com/2013/03/amit-agarwals-model-portfolio.html

Buy Cancer Cover and Secure your Finances

 The risk of cancer has become real and is beginning to threaten most of the population in India. According to the Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR), this life-threatening disease is expected to affect more than 17 lakh people and resulting in over 8.8 lakhs in the country by the end of 2020. Some other reports specify how cancer is set to engulf even the youngest of the population and will be a major health concern by the end of 2035. 

What is even more burdening is the cost of treatment for cancer. If not diagnosed and treated properly, cancer can cause death most certainly. In such a case, buying a term insurance plan or a health insurance is not enough, it is always wiser to invest in stand-alone cancer insurance to financially protect you and your loved ones from the dreadful disease.

Importance and need of a cancer cover

Cancer is a deadly and financially burdening disease. Moreover, with the recent advancements in the treatment of cancer, newer technologies have become more out-of-reach for the common man. Hence, a specialized cover like cancer insurance provides your financial support in dire times.

Best Way to Invest In Gold

If you have been thinking of buying gold for your portfolio either to protect your hard earned wealth from the perils of fiat currency printing by central banks or to simply boost your portfolio return, then there are many different ways to have an exposure to the shiny metal beside the age old way of buying gold jewelry. 

Following are 3 different ways to invest in gold with their respective pros and cons. We will also tell you the best among the three, that we prefer, if you have long term bullish outlook on the metal.

History of Gold Price in India in Rupees per bhari since 1964

History of gold price trend in India since 1964. Prices in both bhari* (Indian metric system) and per 10 grams.

This chart contains the average annual price for gold from 1964 in gms

How Mutual Fund Investing is becoming simpler and hassle free

Mutual fund investments used to be a tedious process few years back.  It involved numerous visits to the adviser's office, lengthy paperwork & payment formalities. Financial service providers eventually invested heavily in technology to make investment easier and reduce the monotony of the process. However, one thing digitization and technological advancement cannot solve is the dilemma of choosing the right scheme to fulfill your investment goal. To deal with this everlasting problem, ICICIdirect, has introduced “One Click Investment” a one stop solution for all your mutual funds investing needs. With One Click, investors can choose from 6 thoughtfully researched baskets of Mutual Fund schemes, which are carefully curated to help you power your investments.

There are several categories of portfolios depending on mix of equity and debt exposure to choose from, ranging from 100% debt to 100% equity.

The investment baskets offered under One click are described below. The investor can choose the best basket as per his/her financial goal.

Portfolio Update Sep 2019

The broader markets have witnessed humongous damage to stock prices in India specially midcap and small cap stocks since past 1 year or so. The economic slowdown, crisis in PSU and NBFC space and series of corporate defaults and frauds has lead to loss of confidence in Indian Stock Markets which has resulted in heavy FII selling.

The crisis seems to be deepening further and Individuals seems to be coming under financial pressure from loss of jobs, poor confidence in Indian economy and fall in savings rate. According to me there is little that govt. can do to reverse this immediately and it appears that it will play out on its own. If things carry on like this for some more time, the SIP flows will take an impact which might lead to further selling pressure.

The India domestic story doesn't appear that rosy anymore and hence a major churn is done in the  portfolio. Please check the updated portfolio for further details.

http://www.investorzclub.com/2013/03/amit-agarwals-model-portfolio.html

Amateur vs Professional Traders