Friday, September 12, 2025

CAN INR appreciate to 65 vs USD

Considering the shaken confidence of the world in USD, all thanks to its gigantic money printing and Trump policies, INR appreciating to USD is not a fiction and can be a reality even though everyone alive today has seen only the opposite of this phenomenon. But given the backdrop of whats happening with USA and its 37+ trillion debt going out of hand why can't a country like India which is growing the fastest, is politically stable and ticking the right policy boxes get stronger relatively on currency front or at least get disparity to its PPP a little less. 

In terms of PPP USD is 21 while on exchange rate it is 88. This results in a disparity factor of ~4.2. China has diparity factor of 1.8x, Japan 1.1x, Germany similar.

Rank Economy Economic Type Estimated Ratio (PPP ÷ Market)
1 India Emerging ≈ 4.0×
2 China Emerging ≈ 1.8×
3 United States Advanced ≈ 1.0×
4 Japan Advanced ≈ 0.9–1.1×
5 Germany Advanced ≈ 1.0–1.2×
6 UK Advanced ≈ 1.1×
7 France Advanced ≈ 1.0–1.2×
8 Brazil Emerging ≈ 2.0–3.0×
9 Italy Advanced ≈ 1.0–1.2×
10 Canada Advanced ≈ 1.0×

Even if INR gets to a disparity factor of 3 there is at least 25% appreciation possible in INR which brings INR to a level of around 65. 

I am quite hopeful that this is something we will see in next few years as India rises and US platues or fall.

No comments:

Post a Comment

15 Stock Investment Tips from Rakesh Jhunjhunwala

1. Always go against tide. Buy when others are selling and sell when others are buying.  2. If you believe in the growth prospects o...