1. For a 40% move from the bottom:
Based on historical banking scandals and recoveries, the average time required for a 40% rise from the low is approximately 235 days (~8 months).
Breakdown of Recovery Times:
- Wells Fargo (2016): ~180 days (~6 months)
- American Express (1963): ~365 days (~1 year)
- JP Morgan (2012): ~150 days (~5 months)
- Axis Bank (2017): ~210 days (~7 months)
- ICICI Bank (2018, Chanda Kochhar Issue): ~270 days (~9 months)
What This Means for IndusInd Bank (Post-Derivatives Issue)
- If IndusInd follows the fastest recovery path (JPMorgan, 150 days), a 40% rise could happen within 5 months.
- If it follows the slowest recovery (Amex, 365 days), it may take 1 year.
- Most likely scenario: 6-9 months for a 40% recovery, depending on sentiment, governance response, and market conditions.
IndusInd Bank Price Target Based on Historical Recovery Patterns
Since historical bank scandals show a 40% recovery in ~5 to 12 months, let's apply this to IndusInd Bank.
1. Current Data for IndusInd Bank:
- Current Price: ₹700
- Recent Low (Approximate): ₹680
- 40% Upside Target: ₹950 - ₹1,000
- Timeframe for Recovery (Based on History): 5 to 12 months
2. Scenario-Based Target Prices
| Historical Case | Recovery Time (Days) | IndusInd Target Price |
|---|---|---|
| Fastest Recovery (JPMorgan, 2012) | 150 days (~5 months) | ₹950 |
| Moderate Recovery (Wells Fargo, 2016 / Axis Bank, 2017) | 180-210 days (~6-7 months) | ₹970 - ₹1,000 |
| Slower Recovery (ICICI Bank, 2018) | 270 days (~9 months) | ₹1,050 |
| Longest Recovery (AmEx, 1963) | 365 days (~1 year) | ₹1,100+ |
2. Historical Recovery Periods for 100% Gains
Which Bank Fell the Most and How Long It Took to Double?
To determine the biggest fall and the time to recover, let's compare the declines in stock price during each crisis and the time it took to double from the bottom.
| Bank & Crisis | Peak Price | Lowest Price (Decline %) | Time to Double (100% Gain from Low) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wells Fargo (2016 Fake Accounts Scandal) | ~$58 | ~$43 (-26%) | ~2 years (2026 equivalent) |
| American Express (1963 Salad Oil Scandal) | ~$60 | ~$35 (-42%) | ~3 years (2027 equivalent) |
| JP Morgan (2012 London Whale) | ~$46 | ~$31 (-33%) | ~1.5 years (Mid-2025 equivalent) |
| Axis Bank (2017 Asset Quality Issues) | ₹550 | ₹450 (-18%) | ~2.5 years (Late 2026 equivalent) |
| ICICI Bank (2018 Chanda Kochhar Issue) | ₹365 | ₹250 (-32%) | ~3 years (2027 equivalent) |
What This Means for IndusInd Bank
- IndusInd Bank’s current fall is nearly -50% from highs, meaning it fell more than all these historical cases.
- Based on history, time to double could range from 1.5 years (JPMorgan case) to 3 years (ICICI/AmEx case).
- Faster recovery (1.5 years) → ₹1,400 by Mid-2025
- Moderate recovery (2-2.5 years) → ₹1,400 by 2026
- Slower recovery (3 years) → ₹1,400+ by 2027
3. Key Takeaways
- Base Case: ₹1,200 - ₹1,260 (12-18 months)
- Moderate Case: ₹1,500+ (18-24 months)
- Bullish Case: ₹1,800+ (2.5 - 3 years)
Given historical recoveries (JPM, AmEx, ICICI, Axis), a ₹1,400 target is achievable within ~2 years (by 2026).
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