Thursday, March 21, 2013

Amit Agarwal's Model Portfolio

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Update as on 30th June 2025
****************************
Bought 261 shares of Karnataka Bank. The ceo exit provides a great opportunity to enter the stock at just 0.6 time current book value. At 12-13% roe it deserves at least 1 time book value multiple. So in 3 years its a 2X opportunity.

Portfolio as on 30th June 2025:

Stock                           Qty                    Avg. Price      Investment
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
Selan Exploration      160                   250               40000
Jindal Drilling             50                    240               12000
Indusind Bank            400                  700               280000                
Karnataka Bank          261                  196.5             51300                
Cash                                                                              Nil
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Total                                                                            3,83,300

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Update as on 12th March 2025
****************************
Added 400 shares of Indusind bank at inr 700/share to the portfolio.

Portfolio as on 12th Mar 2025:

Stock                           Qty                    Avg. Price      Investment
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
Selan Exploration      160                   250               40000
Jindal Drilling             50                    240               12000
Indusind Bank            400                  700               280000                
Cash                                                                              51,300
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
Total                                                                            3,83,300

Rationale:

#Indusind Bank has fallen over 60% from its 52 wk high of 1700 approx (microfin + derivative issue) and the problem that its facing is a lot magnitude lower than what icici bank was facing during 2015 to 2018 period and it fell top to bottom only 54% and bottomed out at 1.4 time PBV. But due to internet and the velocity of newsflow along with algo trades the stock has collapsed at such rapid pace which has stunned the participants. But its a story across the world due to tech. TSL, NVDA Bitcoin all falling 40-50% at a whim and then again goes up equally fast. This is the new normal. Leverage and Technolgy together has amplified the ferocity of movements in stocks.

With 865 book value on 1st April 2025 and at least 950 on 1st April 2026, with all the negative sentiment getting priced in next 5 months, positive reports will start flowing in. The stock should reach 950 at least by 31st July 2025 (around 4.5 months from now). Eventually the stock should start trading at 1425 (1.5 time PBV) by 30th April 2026.

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Update as on 29th Aug 2022
****************************
# Earned 12 Liquid bees unit till date.
# Sold 382 liquid bees unit for a cash flow of 382000
# Added 160 shares of Selan Exploration @ 250 for an investment of 40000
# Added 50 shares of Jindal Drilling @ 240 for an inv of 12000

Portfolio as on 29th Aug 2022:

Stock                           Qty                    Avg. Price      Investment
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
Selan Exploration      160                   250               40000
Jindal Drilling             50                    240               12000
Cash                                                                              3,31,300
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Total                                                                            3,83,300




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Update as on 20th Jan 2021
****************************
# Exiting all the stock positions to go 100% cash.

# Primary reason being the market on steroid which is exactly the opposite of what was happening in march 2020. At 40 time pe multiple based on FY-20 EPS the market is extremely overvalued and stretched. Even if we assume FY-23 Nifty EPS of 700 (almost double of FY-20), it is still trading at 20 times forward multiple.

# At mid sized bank the deposit is yielding 8% or 12.5 pe multiple while the stock market is trading at 40 times on TTM basis and 20 times on an optimistic eps assumption for FY-23 FY. I would rather keep my money in debt rather take risk on stock at current levels. Hence the cash call.

# Sold Tata Motors DVR 1600 shares @ 106 thereby generating a cash of 1,69,600 /-
# Bought 170 liquid bees at 1000 each.
# Total portfolio stands at 3,71,300/-

Portfolio as on 20th Jan 2021:

Stock                  Qty                    Avg. Price      Investment
----------------------------------------------------------------
Liquid Bees      370                   1000               370,000
Cash                                                                      1,300
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
Total                                                                    3,71,300


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Update as on 7th Jan 2021
****************************

Updating the model portfolio after a big gap pf almost 1.5 years and there has been dramatic moves in stock markets across the world during that time. The pandemic made everyone felt that the world is coming to an end but things stabilized after some time and we are starring at all time highs in all the markets globally. The stimulus packages across the world to soften the impact of covid on economy is creating a downward pressure on currencies across the world and that is fueling inflation in all the commodities.

It was the first time in history that Crude oil futures contract went into negative (-40) in march 2020 which essentially meant that producers were paying for you to hold the stock. That was unprecedented. By the end of the year things reversed 180 degree and commodities are witnessing massive inflation. 

One such commodity stock is in our portfolio which is tata steel and steel prices being at all time high, the sentiment is very bullish on the stock. Hence to cash the euphoria, the holding in tata steel is being vacated. Also selling ongc at loss since the company has started making losses due to mismanagement, high debt, low gas prices etc. Since govt revenue is under pressure, likely OFS issues and capital raising will keep the stock under pressure.

# Sold Tata steel 200 shares at 720 thereby generating a cash of 144000 and profit of 75000, a return of 108% in 1.5 years.

# Sold ONGC 500 shares at 98 thereby generating a cash of 49000 and a loss of -15500.

# Purchased liquid bees worth 2 lacs

Portfolio as on 7th Jan 2020:

Stock                  Qty                    Avg. Price      Investment
----------------------------------------------------------------
TMDVR^              1600                 93                    148,800
Liquid Bees      200                   1000               200,000
Cash                                                                           1,700
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
Total                                                                    3,50,500

^ Tata motors dvr is kept intact as this appears to be the most undervalued stock in cnx 500. Due to brexit, pandemic and massive fall in CV sales in India, the DVR stcok went to a low of around 29 in march 2020. At that time the market panicked and discounted bankruptcy for the stock. But with all the cost cutting measures undertaken and significant improvement in local PV sales along with expectation of good FY-22 sales in CV and PV, the company is expected to do at least 35000 crores of operating profit on consolidated basis which value the company at 0.87 time OP at cmp of Rs. 80. That is absurd valuation and beyond my understanding as to why such kind of valuation is given to a company which is generating over $40 billion sales, employs over 80000 people and is a significant company of Tata Stable. Governance, scope of electrification should itself give much higher OP multiples in future. 
so even if we discount OP multiple of 2 times next year then the DVR stock must be valued at Rs 183 on very conservative basis on the expanded equity shares of 382 crore shares after capital infusion by Tata Sons.

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Update as on 17th Sep 2019
****************************

## Sold PSB 1000 Shares @ 20 thereby taking a loss of Rs. 18000 
## Sold Suryalaxmi Cotton 600 Shares @ 22 thereby taking a loss of Rs. 27000
## Sold Idea 1000 Shares @ 5 thereby taking a loss of Rs. 37000
## Sold 400 Shares of Goldiam at 117 thereby making a profit of 20000

## Earned 2 units of Liquid bees on 100 units of holding worth 2000
## Sold 102 Liquid Bees worth RS. 1,02,000

## Bought Tata Steel 200 shares at 345
## Bought Tata Motors DVR 800 shares at 56
## Bought 500 shares of ONGC at 129
## Total Cash Generated from Selling is Rs 1,87,000
## Total Cash used in purchasing new shares is 178300



Portfolio as on 17th Sep 2019:


Stock                  Qty                    Avg. Price      Investment
----------------------------------------------------------------
ONGC                 500                   129                   64,500    
TMDVR              1600                 93                    148,800
Tata Steel           200                   345                   69,000
Cash                                                                           8,700
-----------------------------------------------------------------------

Total                                                                    2,91,000

** The Portfolio churn has reduced the networth at cost by roughly 16% since 7th March 2019. Exposure to large global stocks should make up for the losses in coming months. Midcaps and small caps might have bottomed out but lack of confidence, recent memory of bloodbath and poor income growth due to economic turmoil will keep their prices in check and investors are not going to bid up and buy in hurry except selective stories. Hence the exposure has been entirely shifted to undervalued large caps.

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Update as on 7th March 2019
****************************

## Sold Balrampur Chini Mills 1000 Shares @ 140 thereby making a profit of 65500 
## Bought Tata Motors DVR 400 Shares @ 95 bringing down the average price to 130.
## Cash residual used to purchase Liquid Bees 100 units for Rs. 1,00,000


Portfolio as on 7th March 2019:

Stock                  Qty                    Avg. Price      Investment
----------------------------------------------------------------
PSB                     1000                  38                    38,000    
Goldiam             400                    67                    26,800
TMDVR              800                   130                104,000
Suryalaxmi        600                    57                    34,200
Idea                     1000                  42                   42,000
Liquid Bees        100                     1000            100,000
Cash                                                                           2,189
-----------------------------------------------------------------------


Total                                                                    3,47,189

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Update as on 24th Sep 2018
****************************

Allocating cash further to reduce cost of our holdings after massive panic correction.

## Bought Balrampur Chini Mills 500 Shares @ 75 
## Bought Tata Motors DVR 200 Shares @ 128
## Bought Suryalakshmi Cotton Mills 300 Shares @ 44
## Bought Idea Cellular 1000 Shares @ 42   

##  Earned Roughly 3 units of Liquid Bees on 115000 Since April.

##  Sold 118 units of Liquid Bees worth 118000.

Portfolio as on 24th Sep 2018:

Stock                  Qty                    Avg. Price      Investment
----------------------------------------------------------------
Balram chini     1000                  74.5               74,500
PSB                     1000                  38                  38,000    
Goldiam             400                    67                  26,800
TMDVR              400                   165                66,000
Suryalaxmi        600                    57                  34,200
Idea                     1000                  42                  42,000
Cash                                                                            189
-----------------------------------------------------------------------


Total                                                                    2,81,689


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Update as on 12th April 2018
****************************

Allocating cash to buy some beaten down names after decent correction since the portfolio was liquidated.

## Bought Balrampur Chini Mills 500 Shares @ 74 
## Bought Punjab Sind Bank 1000 Shares @ 38 
## Bought Goldiam International 400 Shares @ 67
## Bought Tata Motors DVR 200 Shares @ 202
## Bought Suryalakshmi Cotton Mills 300 Shares @ 70   

##  Earned Roughly 5 units of Liquid Bees on 273000 till date.
##  Sold 163 units of Liquid Bees worth 163000.


Portfolio as on 12th April 2018:

Stock                  Qty                    Avg. Price      Investment
----------------------------------------------------------------
Balram chini     500                    74                   37,000
PSB                     1000                  38                  38,000    
Goldiam             400                    67                  26,800
TMDVR              200                   202                40,400
Suryalaxmi        300                    70                  21,000
Liquid Bees        115                     1000            115,000
Cash                                                                            489
-----------------------------------------------------------------------


Total                                                                    2,78,689


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Update as on 13th Nov 2017
****************************

Liquidating the entire portfolio and sitting on sideline for opportunities after a decent correction.

## Sold Bharti Airtel 150 Shares @ 500 
## Sold Majesco 100 Shares @ 524 
## Sold Mindtree 100 Shares @ 504 
## Sold HGS 50 Shares @ 560 
## Sold Sunpharma 75 Shares @ 535 
## Sold Coal India 100 Shares @ 275 



Portfolio as on 13th Nov 2017:

Stock                  Qty                    Avg. Price      Investment
----------------------------------------------------------------
LiquidBees      273                                              2,73,000
Cash                                                                                689
-----------------------------------------------------------------------

Total                                                                    2,73,689


The portfolio witnessed 22% appreciation in just 3 months which suggest the kind of euphoria getting built in the stock markets. It was not expected when I picked stocks just 3 months back. This appreciation is not bcoz of my superior stock picking skills but bcoz of benign environment. From portfolio standpoint there are no good opportunities easily available at these levels and hence taking a call on sitting on 100% cash. It seems globally a significant correction is imminent as the markets across the world have been running as if there is no tomorrow and ignoring all the potential risk. Staying invested is mutual funds mandate but retail shareholders have the choice and flexibility to stay on cash when nothing is worth buying.    


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Update as on 10th Aug 2017
****************************

Utilizing the sharp fall in Sun Pharma and Coal India to allocate cash in the portfolio.

## Bought Sunpharma 75 Shares @ 460 
## Bought Coal India  100 Shares @ 240


Portfolio as on 10th Aug 2017:

Stock                  Qty                    Avg. Price      Investment
----------------------------------------------------------------
Bharti Airtel     150                     344                51,600
Majesco             100                    385                 38,500    
Mindtree           100                    448                 44,800
HGS                   50                      588                 29,400
Sun Pharma     75                       460                 34,500
Coal India        100                     240                 24,000
Cash                                                                            264
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
Total                                                                    2,23,064




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Update as on 7th April 2017
****************************
Restarting the portfolio with some names where significant opportunities are emerging. 

Bharti Airtel: After all the scare that RJIO created in the telecom market, I believe the strongest player will only get stronger from here onwards. Bharti Airtel is the last to fall if competitive intensity carry on at the same pace. In this along with the sector govt revenue is also getting impacted. Hence some sanity should come to this space and should make very good return in next 2 years.

Majesco: A U.S based P&C insurer trading at EV less than sales while its nearest competitor guidewire trades at many times sales. I expect it to generate multibagger returns in 2 years if management continue to make deal wins from large insurers. 

Hinduja Global: The stock is trading at roughly one third EV to sales  based on FY-18 numbers.

Mindtree: One of the best mid tier IT services company. I expect in next 12 months the policy related issues in U.S will get largely over and the stock should start commanding at least 16-18 PE multiples on FY-19 earnings.

## Earned Rs. 3000 on our Liquid bees investments in 4 months. Sold all the holdings in Liquid Bees

## Bought Bharti Airtel 150 shares at 344

## Bought Majesco 100 shares at 385

## Bought Mindtree 100 shares at 448

## Bought Hinduja Global 50 shares at 588

Portfolio as on 7th April 2017:

Stock                  Qty                    Avg. Price      Investment
----------------------------------------------------------------
Bharti Airtel     150                     344                51,600
Majesco             100                    385                 38,500    
Mindtree           100                    448                 44,800
HGS                   50                      588                 29,400
Cash                                                                      58,764
-----------------------------------------------------------------------


Total                                                                    2,23,064


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Update as on 1st Dec 2016
****************************
Considering the headwinds in terms of chaotic demonetization and its likely impact on growth along with GST rollout which is likely to be negatively impacting the GDP in short term, the portfolio is being liquidated to stay in cash for some time. 

Also there are many events lined up such as Italian Referendum, U.S rate hike, and the impact of GAAR being applicable from 1st April 2017. FIIs did almost 20000 crores of selling in the month of Nov in equities and similar amount in debt as well. All these things are pointing towards either a correction or a lack luster market for next 5-6 months. 

So in my view Fixed Income is relatively safer place to park money at this point of time from the risk-reward perspective.

## Sold Idea cellular 400 shares at 74 resulting in loss of Rs.3200
## Sold Bharti Airtel 50 shares @ 316 resulting in loss of Rs. 1600
## Sold BOI 300 shares at @ 116 resulting in loss of Rs. 5700
## Sold Mastek 200 shares @ 142 resulting in gain of Rs. 2400
## Sold L&T Infotech 50 shares @ 650 resulting in gain of Rs. 1700
## Sold Selan Exploration 100 shares at 193 resulting in gain of Rs. 300
## Sold ITC 100 shares @ 233 resulting in gain of Rs. 700
## Sold Ambuja Cements 100 shares @ 207 resulting in gain of Rs. 1200
## Sold Sun Pharma 20 Shares at 720 resulting in gain of Rs. 600

## Bought Liquid Bees 200 at 1000

The above transactions resulted in loss of Rs. 3600 and the net portfolio is having only Liquid Bees worth 2 lakhs and cash Rs. 20,064. 

Stock                  Qty                    Avg. Price      Investment
----------------------------------------------------------------

Liquid Bees       200                 1000                     2,00,000
Cash                                                                              20,064

-----------------------------------------------------------------------
Total                                                                        2,20,064



****************************
Update as on 22nd Nov 2016
****************************
## Bought ITC ltd 100 shares @ 226
## Bought Ambuja Cements 100 shares @ 195
## Bought Sun Pharma 20 shares @ 690

Stock                  Qty                    Avg. Price      Investment
----------------------------------------------------------------
Idea Cellular     400                 82                     32,800 
Bharti Airtel     50                     348                  17,400
BOI                    300                   136                  40,800    
Mastek              200                   130                  26,000
L&T Infotech   50                      616                  30,800
Selan Exp         100                    190                  19,000
ITC                    100                    226                  22,600
Ambuja            100                    195                   19,500
Sun Pharma    20                      690                  13,800
Cash                                                                           964
-----------------------------------------------------------------------

Total                                                                    2,23,664


****************************
Update as on 06th Oct 2016
****************************
## Sold Cairn India 50 shares @ 228.5 thereby generating a gain of Rs. 1100
## Bought Mastek Ltd 200 shares @ 130
## Bought L&T Infotech 50 shares @ 616
## Bought 100 Selan exploration 100 shares @ 190

Stock                  Qty                    Avg. Price      Investment
----------------------------------------------------------------
Idea Cellular     400                 82                     32,800 
Bharti Airtel     50                     348                  17,400
BOI                    300                   136                  40,800    
Mastek              200                   130                  26,000
L&T Infotech   50                      616                  30,800
Selan Exp         100                    190                  19,000
Cash                                                                      56,864
-----------------------------------------------------------------------

Total                                                                    2,23,664

Key Points:

## Mastek Ltd is trading at a valuation equivalent to cash and investment (13% stake in Majesco). The company is focused on IT services now and should do well going forward as Mastek 4.0 matures and clients get results. Its U.S subsidiary Digility has started generating business and the co. is looking to acquire a small to mid sized IT service co. in U.S to reestablish its position in the worlds largest IT market.

## L&T Infotech is probably the cheapest mid sized IT service company in India and is trading at roughly 10 times FY-18 EPS

## Cairn India is replaced by Selan Exploration which is also in to oil production but is a much smaller player compared to cairn India. However the company is cash rich and worst of oil fall seems to be behind the company. With huge 2p reserves the company has potential to generate significant cash flow going forward.


****************************
Update as on 02nd Sep 2016
****************************
## Utilized sharp fall in Idea Cellular as the stock has now reached very attractive valuations. Bought 400 shares at 82 thereby making an investment of Rs. 32800

Stock                  Qty                    Avg. Price      Investment
----------------------------------------------------------------
Idea Cellular     400                 82                     32,800 
Cairn                  50                   206.55              10,327
Bharti Airtel     50                     348                  17,400
BOI                    300                   136                  40,800    
Cash                                                                      1,21,237
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
Total                                                                    2,22,564

Couple of points:

1. Market has panicked about Bharti And idea cellular while the major impact of JIO launch will be on Uninor, Videocon, Aircel & Rcom. Excluding Bharti, Idea and Vodafone there are 400 million connection which would get impacted first.

2. JIO is actually protecting ARPU and targatting 500 bucks a month from each user. If it happen it will be a god send opportunity for incumbent operators as their ARPUs also goes up. 

3. In 5 years time there will be at max 4 large players with all marginal players consolidated and a very strong industry with all the characteristics of an excellent business like consumption item, significant cash flow, very high entry barrier etc.

****************************
Update as on 31st Aug 2016
****************************
## Utilized sharp rally in Reliance Capital to book profits. Sold 30 shares at 535 thereby making a gain of Rs. 2250
## Cash Level increased by Rs. 16,050 taking total cash in portfolio to Rs. 1,54,037


Stock                  Qty                    Avg. Price      Investment
----------------------------------------------------------------
Cairn                  50                   206.55              10,327
Bharti Airtel     50                     348                  17,400
BOI                    300                   136                  40,800    
Cash                                                                      1,54,037
-----------------------------------------------------------------------

Total                                                                    2,22,564

Note: The portfolio is sitting on roughly 70% cash for the lack of any investing opportunity.

****************************
Update as on 19th Aug 2016
****************************
## Utilized sharp rally in Cairn India to re-balance the portfolio. Sold 300 shares at 212 thereby making a gain of Rs. 1635
## Cash Level increased by Rs. 63,600 taking total cash in portfolio to Rs. 1,37,987


Stock                  Qty                    Avg. Price      Investment
----------------------------------------------------------------

Cairn                  50                   206.55              10,327

Bharti Airtel     50                     348                  17,400

R Capital           30                     460                  13,800
BOI                    300                   136                  40,800    
Cash                                                                      1,37,987
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
Total                                                                    2,20,314

Note: Market is highly exuberant on the back of foreign liquidity which is making many stocks in the market very expensive. Staying 100% invested in this kind of market leaves no room for margin of safety and hence will wait for correction to dabble into stocks which we like as a business and are comfortable paying the price. Staying invested at current levels might give us a max of 10% return over next one year on index level but the risk on the downside is quite large in case something goes wrong globally or locally. 

In terms of local risk, the risk to inflation is slowly beginning to reemerge which will get exaggerated if crude moves to $60 by the end of this year. This is turn will put pressure on our currency which could depreciate to 70+ in a year's time as most of the world is facing deflation and U.S is having less than 2% inflation while we are having more than 6%. Earnings have been largely disappointing for 9th quarter in a row and is expected to stay weak in Q2 as well thereby pulling down the eps estimate once again for FY-2017. With all the good news being priced in the stock prices today, it doesn't make sense to buy the euphoria. As value investor it's always the other way round. We buy the fear and sell the greed. 

As on 19th Aug the model portfolio (at market price) has delivered over 115% of absolute return since 21st March 2013 (portfolio start date with Rs. 1 lakh capital) while Nifty has delivered 52% return since then. Since we have already outperformed the market significantly we w
ill wait on the sidelines for sometime before market gives us an opportunity to utilize cash in our portfolio.

****************************
Update as on 14th July 2016
****************************

## Sold Exide 100 shares at 182 resulting in a loss of Rs. 300

## Sold Adani Ports 100 shares at 218 resulting in a gain of Rs. 3600 (Gain of around 20%)

## Cairn India went ex-dividend (Rs. 3 per share) in early July resulting in gain of Rs.1050

## Net Portfolio stands increased by Rs.4350 to Rs. 2,18,679





Stock                  Qty                    Avg. Price      Investment

----------------------------------------------------------------

Cairn                  350                   206.55            72,292

Bharti Airtel     50                     348                  17,400

R Capital           30                     460                  13,800
BOI                    300                   136                  40,800    
Cash                                                                      74,387
-----------------------------------------------------------------------

Total                                                                    2,18,679


****************************
Update as on 18th May 2016
****************************
## Sold JK Paper 200 shares at 52 realizing gains of Rs.3600 (53% profit in 14 months)
## Added 100 additional shares of BOI @ 84 thereby bringing down the avg cost to 136
## Added Adani Ports 100 shares at 182
## Net Portfolio stands increased by 3600 to Rs. 2,14,329

Stock                  Qty                    Avg. Price      Investment
----------------------------------------------------------------
Cairn                  350                   206.55            72,292
Bharti Airtel     50                     348                  17,400
R Capital           30                     460                  13,800
Exide                 100                    185                  18,500
BOI                    300                   136                  40,800    
Adani Ports      100                   182                   18,200 
Cash                                                                      33,337
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
Total                                                                    2,14,329

****************************
Update as on 21st April 2016
****************************
## Sold Hindalco 300 shares at 104 realizing gains of Rs.9000 (40%+ gain in 5 months)
## Cash position increased to Rs. 49537
## Net Portfolio stands increased by 9000 to Rs. 2,10,727

Net Portfolio as on 21st April 2016 stands as below:


Stock                  Qty                    Avg. Price      Investment
----------------------------------------------------------------
Cairn                  350                   206.55            72,292
Bharti Airtel     50                     348                  17,400
R Capital           30                     460                  13,800
Exide                 100                    185                  18,500
BOI                    200                   162                  32,400    
JK Paper           200                   34                      6,800 
Cash                                                                      49,537
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
Total                                                                    2,10,729

*******************************
Update as on 21st March 2016
*******************************


****************************
Update as on 12th Jan 2016
****************************
## Sold Sun Pharma 35 shares at 791 realizing gains of Rs.2590
## Bought bank of India 100 shares at Rs. 104 bringing the average cost of holding of 200 shares down to Rs. 162 
## Cash position increased to Rs. 18337

Net Portfolio as on 12th Jan 2016 stands as below:


Stock                  Qty                    Avg. Price      Investment
----------------------------------------------------------------
Cairn                  350                   206.55            72,292
Bharti Airtel     50                     348                  17,400
R Capital           30                     460                  13,800
Exide                 100                    185                  18,500
BOI                    200                   162                  32,400    
JK Paper           200                   34                      6,800 
Hindalco          300                   74                     22,200
Cash                                                                      18,337
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
Total                                                                    2,01,729

****************************
Update as on 23rd Nov 2015
****************************
## Bought Sun Pharma 35 shares at 717  worth ==> Rs. 25,095
## Bought Hindalco Industries 300 shares at 74 worth ==> Rs. 22,200
## Sold Reliance Capital 10 Shares at 410 worth ==> Rs.4,100 (Incurring a loss of Rs. 500)

Net Portfolio as on 23rd Nov 2015 stands as below:


Stock                  Qty                    Avg. Price      Investment
----------------------------------------------------------------
Cairn                  350                   206.55            72,292
Bharti Airtel     50                     348                  17,400
R Capital           30                     460                  13,800
Exide                 100                    185                  18,500
BOI                    100                    220                 22,000    
JK Paper           200                   34                      6,800 
Sun Pharma     35                      717                   25,095
Hindalco          300                   74                     22,200
Cash                                                                         1,052
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
Total                                                                    1,99,139

****************************
Update as on 19th Oct 2015
****************************
## Due to massive short covering and more than 35% appreciation in 2 weeks, Tata Motors is expected to stay sideways. Hence sold all the shares for the time being. Rcom is expected to report average set of numbers hence booking profit in that scrip as well.

## Sold Tata Motors 62 shares at 383 thereby generating a profit of around Rs.5000
## Sold Rcom 250 shares at 82 giving the portfolio a gain of 2500 bucks.


Net Portfolio as on 19th Oct stands as below:

Stock                  Qty                    Avg. Price      Investment
----------------------------------------------------------------
Cairn                  350                   206.55            72,292
Bharti Airtel     50                     348                  17,400
R Capital           40                     460                  18,400
Exide                 100                    185                  18,500
BOI                    100                    220                 22,000    
JK Paper           200                   34                    6,800 
Cash                                                                      44,247
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
Total                                                                    1,99,639


****************************
Update as on 24th Sep 2015
****************************
## Swift market correction and FII's relentless selling of companies doing badly in operational performance in-spite of highly compelling valuations has led to significant price damage in some of the stocks of our portfolio.

## Done a bit of reshuffling in the portfolio to adjust some concentration risk and also to utilize significant value emerging in Tata Motors.

## Sold 80 shares of Cairn India at Rs. 150 incurring a loss of Rs. 4524 (releasing Rs.12000 cash)
## Sold 50 Rcom at Rs. 64.5 incurring a loss of Rs. 375 (releasing Rs.3225 cash)
## Sold Reliance Capital 10 shares at 354 incurring a loss of Rs. 1060 (releasing Rs.3540 cash)
## Bought Tata Motors 62 shares at Rs. 303 with the cash released from above shares.

Net Portfolio as on 24th Sep stands as below:

Stock                  Qty                    Avg. Price      Investment
----------------------------------------------------------------
Cairn                  350                   206.55            72,292
Bharti Airtel     50                     348                  17,400
Rcom                 250                   72                    18,000
R Capital           40                     460                  18,400
Exide                 100                    185                  18,500
BOI                    100                    220                 22,000    
JK Paper           200                   34                      6,800 
Tata Motors        62                   302.65            18,765
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
Total                                                                    1,92,157

Note the portfolio is reduce to Rs 1,92,157 from Rs. 1,98,120 last reported due to cumulative losses (Rs. 5959) taken (as shown above) to accommodate Tata Motors in the portfolio.

****************************
Update as on 9th June 2015
****************************
## Sold ONGC 100 shares at 303 (at loss) to acquire additional 180 shares in Cairn India at 172 (for 30960) as the stock has become very attractive due to panic selling. Also not to over allocate to a particular sector, ONGC is being replaced with Cairn India.

## Net holding in Cairn India stands at 430 shares at avg price of 206.5

Net portfolio as on 9th June 2015:

Stock                  Qty                    Avg. Price      Investment
----------------------------------------------------------------
Cairn                  430                   206.55            88,820
Bharti Airtel     50                     348                  17,400
Rcom                 300                   72                    21,600
R Capital           50                     460                  23,000
Exide                 100                    185                  18,500
BOI                    100                    220                 22,000    
JK Paper           200                    34                     6,800 
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
Total                                                                    1,98,120

Note: The portfolio value at cash is reduced by 4700 bucks due to loss taken on ONGC for buying the Cairn India shares.

****************************
Update as on 25th May 2015
****************************
## Bought additional Cairn India 130 shares at 195 bringing down the average cost of holding for 250 shares to approx. Rs. 231.5. Cairn India has declared a dividend of 4 bucks per share to be ex-div on 8th July 2015.

## Net residual cash after the above purchase remains at 650 bucks.


****************************
Update as on 21st March 2015
****************************


Detailed Annual Performance Review of Model Portfolio Vs Nifty


****************************
Update as on 12th March 2015
****************************

Booking profits in NTPC & Tata Global and allocating some additional cash to stock.

## Sold NTPC 100 shares at 160 thereby booking gain of Rs.2000

## Sold Tata Global 100 shares at 160 thereby booking gain of Rs.500

## Bought ONGC  additional 50 shares at 308 ==>  Rs. 15400 (Avg cost of 100 shares now 350 bucks)

## Bought Bank of India 100 shares at 220 ==> Rs. 22000

## Bought JK Paper 200 shares @ 34 ==> Rs.6800

TOTAL PORTFOLIO at COST INCREASED by RS. 2500 TO RS. 2,02,820

Net portfolio as on 12th March 2015:

Stock                  Qty                    Avg. Price      Investment
----------------------------------------------------------------
Cairn                  120                    271                  32,520
ONGC                100                    350                 35,000
Bharti Airtel     50                     348                  17,400
Rcom                 300                   72                    21,600
R Capital           50                     460                  23,000
Exide                 100                    185                  18,500
BOI                    100                    220                 22,000    
JK Paper           200                    34                     6,800 
Cash                                                                      26,000
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
Total                                                                    2,02,820

*Note: The new scrips added in the portfolio above is highlighted in yellow shades.

****************************
Update as on 6th Feb 2015
****************************
Utilizing the opportunity to accumulate stocks that have come down sharply and trading at attractive valuations.

## Bought RCom 300 Shares @ 72 ==> Rs. 21600

## Sold Idea Cellular 100 shares @ 155 thereby booking gain of Rs.1500. (Basically the stock is replaced by Rcom as it is relatively more attractively priced and is least impacted by the upcoming auction.)

## Sold HCL Tech 20 shares at 1960 thereby booking gains of Rs. 9500 (massive gain of 32% in 1.5 months)

## Bought Reliance Capital 50 shares at 460 ==>  Rs. 23000

## Bought Exide Industries 100 shares at 185 ==> Rs. 18500

## Bought NTPC 100 shares @ 140 ==> Rs.14000

TOTAL PORTFOLIO at COST INCREASED by RS. 11000 TO RS. 2,00,320

Net portfolio as on 6th Feb 2015:

Stock                  Qty                    Avg. Price      Investment
----------------------------------------------------------------
Cairn                  120                    271                  32,520
Tata Global       100                    155                  15,500
ONGC                50                      392                 19,600
Bharti Airtel     50                     348                  17,400
Rcom                 300                   72                    21,600
R Capital           50                     460                  23,000
Exide                 100                    185                  18,500
NTPC                 100                    140                 14,000    
Cash                                                                      38,200
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
Total                                                                    2,00,320

Note: The new scrips added in the portfolio above is highlighted in yellow shades.

****************************
Update as on 15th Dec 2014
****************************
Market has witnessed 5% correction from the top and some stocks have been battered significantly. Utilizing this opportunity to nibble some quality names.

Bought Cairn India 60 shares at 240.5 ==> Rs.14,430 (averaging the cost of existing shares by half)
Bought Idea Cellular 100 shares at 140 ==> Rs. 14,000
Bought HCL Tech 20 shares at 1485 ==> Rs. 29,700
Bought Bharti Airtel 50 shares at 348 ==> Rs.17,400

Net portfolio as on 15th Dec 2014:

Stock                  Qty                    Avg. Price      Investment
----------------------------------------------------------------
Cairn                  120                    271                  32,520
Tata Global       100                    155                  15,500
ONGC                50                      392                 19,600
Idea Cellular     100                   140                  14,000
HCL tech            20                     1485               29,700
Bharti Airtel       50                     348                 17,400
Cash                                                                      60,600
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
Total                                                                    1,89,320

****************************
Update as on 18th Nov 2014
****************************
Profit booking in some of the stocks that witnessed sharp run-up in prices.

Sold Reliance Capital 60 shares at 521 resulting in gain of Rs.3600
Sold Rcom 200 shares at 113 resulting in gain of Rs.3400
Sold ITC 50 shares at 368 resulting in gain of Rs.1000
Sold Bank Of India 80 shares at 290 resulting in gain of Rs.4000
Sold NTPC 100 shares at 146 resulting in gain of Rs.1000
Bought ONGC 50 shares at 392 ==> Rs.19600

Net gain from portfolio selling shares = Rs.13000

Net portfolio as on 18th Nov 2014:

Stock                  Qty                    Avg. Price      Investment
----------------------------------------------------------------
Cairn                  60                       301.5             18,090
Tata Global       100                    155                  15,500
ONGC                50                      392                 19,600
Cash                                                                      136,310
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
Total                                                                    1,89,320

Note: Due to the market being overbought and global situation appearing a bit jittery, keeping a large portion of portfolio in cash (~70%) to be deployed on correction.

****************************
Update as on 14th Oct 2014
****************************
Utilizing sharp appreciation in some stocks of the portfolio.

Sold SAIL 400 at 77 resulting in gain of Rs.3600 (around 13% in 15 days)
Sold Spice Jet 1000 shares at 15.3 resulting in gain of Rs. 2500 (around 20% gain in 6 days)

Bought 50 ITC at 348 ==> Rs. 17400

Net portfolio as on 14th oct 2014:

Stock                  Qty                    Avg. Price      Investment
----------------------------------------------------------------
Cairn                  60                       301.5             18,090
Rel Capital        60                       461                27,600
Rcom                  200                    96                  19,200
Bank India         80                      250                20,000
NTPC                  100                    136                 13,600
Tata Global        100                    155                 15,500
ITC                      50                      348                17,400
Cash                                                                      44,930
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
Total                                                                    1,76,320

****************************
Update as on 7th Oct 2014
****************************
Utilizing further correction in select stocks in deploying residual cash in portfolio.

Bought 1000 shares of Spice Jet at 12.80 ==> Rs. 12800
Bought Cairn India 30 shares at 293 ==> Rs. 8790 (averaging the cost per share to 301.5)
Reliance Capital 20 shares at 443 ==> Rs. 8860 (averaging the cost per share to 461)


Net portfolio as on 7th oct 2014:

Stock                  Qty                    Avg. Price      Investment
----------------------------------------------------------------
SAIL                   400                    68                   27,200
Cairn                  60                       301.5              18,090
Rel Capital        60                       461                27,600
Rcom                  200                    96                  19,200
Bank India         80                      250                20,000
NTPC                  100                    136                 13,600
Tata Global        100                    155                 15,500
Spicejet              1000                  12.8                12,800
Cash                                                                      16,170
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
Total                                                                    1,70,220



****************************
Update as on 25th Sep 2014
****************************
Market presented excellent opportunity to buy some some stocks at attractive valuations. Following are the stocks which were added to the portfolio today.

SAIL 400 @ 68  ==> Rs. 27,200 
Cairn India 30 @ 310  ==> Rs. 9300
Reliance Capital 40 @ 470 ==> Rs. 18800
RCom 200 @ 96 ==> Rs. 19200
Bank Of India 80 @ 250 ==> 20000
NTPC 100 @ 136  ==> Rs.13,600

Net portfolio as on 25th Sep 2014:

Stock                  Qty                    Price               Investment
----------------------------------------------------------------
SAIL                   400                    68                   27,200
Cairn                  30                       310                 9,300
Rel Capital        40                       470                18,800
Rcom                  200                    96                  19,200
Bank India         80                      250                20,000
NTPC                  100                    136                 13,600
Tata Global        100                    155                 15,500
Cash                                                                      46,620
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
Total                                                                    1,70,220


****************************
Update as on 2nd Sep 2014
****************************

Sold Cairn India 100 shares at 335 yielding a profit of Rs.2300
Sold M&M Fin 100 shares at 282 yielding a profit of Rs.4400

Bought Tata Global 100 shares @ 155 with an investment of Rs. 15500

So portfolio as on 2nd Sep stands as:

Tata Global 100 shares -> 15,500
Cash -> 1,08,520 (Cash as on 25th July) + 61,700 (Cash from selling above stocks) - 15,500 (Cash utilized in buying fresh stock)= Rs. 1,54,720

Total Portfolio value including Cash and stocks at cost = Rs.1,70,220

****************************
Update as on 25th July 2014
****************************

Utilizing the sharp fall in Cairn India and M&M Financial Services as they represent reasonable value at price points of 312 and 238 respectively

  • Cairn India 100 @ 312 resulting in a investment of Rs. 31,200
  • M&M Financial Services 100 @ 238 with an investment of Rs. 23800
  • Cash -> Rs. 1,08,520

****************************
Update as on 23rd July 2014
****************************

Sold residual stocks (idea and IDFC) in the portfolio at profits leading to a 100% cash position to be deployed on weakness as and when it occurs.
  • Idea Cellular sold 150 shares at 147 thereby generating profit of Rs. 450
  • IDFC sold 100 shares at 160 thereby generating a profit of Rs. 2700
Total profits from the selling of above shares = Rs. 3,150

Updated Portfolio as on 23rd July 2014

Cash --> Rs. 1,63,520 (* Started this portfolio on 21st March 2013 with Rs. 1,00,000. Checkout the bottom of this page for datewise buy and sell in the portfolio).


****************************
Update as on 5th June 2014
****************************

Booking profits in stocks with good profits as the market is increasingly getting over stretched.
  • PSB sold 300 shares at 80.50 thereby generating profit of Rs. 10,050 (Jackpot 71% return)
  • M&M Fin sold 50 shares at 315 thereby generating a profit of Rs. 3450
  • Dish TV sold 300 shares at 55 thereby generating a profit of Rs. 3000
  • NTPC sold 100 shares at 164 thereby generating a profit of Rs. 4100
  • Castrol sold 40 shares at 313 thereby generating a profit of Rs. 800
  • Indian Hotels sold 150 shares at 95 thereby generating a profit of Rs. 3450

Total profits from the selling of above shares = Rs. 24,850

Updated Portfolio as on 5th June 2014

Idea Cellular 150 shares at 144  --> Rs. 21,600
IDFC 100 shares at 133  --> Rs. 13,300
Cash --> Rs. 1,25,470

Total Portfolio value at cost = Rs. 1,60,370 (Up > 60% since 21st March 2013)


****************************
Update as on 13th May 2014
****************************

With exit polls out and most of them pointing towards stable NDA govt at the center, picking on some stocks which could participate in the post poll rally and are at the same time trading at reasonable valuations so that in case something goes wrong in next couple of months there is no major dent in the prices of such stocks.

  • Punjab Sind Bank (PSB) 300 @ 47 resulting in a investment of Rs. 14100
  • M&M Financial Services 50 @ 246 with an investment of Rs. 12300
  • Dish TV 300 @ 45 with an investment of Rs. 13500
  • Castrol India 40 shares @ 293, invstmt = Rs. 11720
  • Indian Hotels 150 shares @ 72, invstmnt = Rs. 10800
  • Cash = Rs. 25,900
Updated portfolio as on 13th May 2014 is as follows:

Amit Agarwal's Model Portfolio ( As on 13th May 2014 )
Company
Qty
Purchase Price
Purchase Value
Idea Cellular
150
144
21,600
IDFC
100
133
13,300
PSB
300
47
14,100
M&Mfin
50
246
12,300
Dish TV
300
45
13,500
Indian Hotels
150
72
10,800
NTPC
100
123
12,300
Castrol
40
293
11,720
Cash


25,900
Total
135,520


****************************
Update as on 27th March 2014
****************************

Utilizing the sharp appreciation in market to encash some of the holdings of the portfolio:

Sold Bharti Airtel 30 shares @ 310 thereby generating a profit of Rs.750
Sold Union Bank 100 shares @ 122 thereby generating a profit of Rs.1200
Sold Dish TV 200 shares @ 52 thereby generating a profit of Rs.600
Sold Bajaj-Auto 8 shares at 2070 thereby generating a profit of Rs. 1320

As on 27th March 2014 day end the model portfolio had following stocks and cash:

Idea Cellular 150 @ 144  -> 21600
IDFC 100 @ 133               -> 13300
Cash = 52160 (Cash as on 21st march 2014) + 48460 (cash due to selling of above stocks)    
->  100620

Net portfolio value at cost   -> Rs. 135520

Wednesday, March 20, 2013

India's Top Wealth Destroyers 2008 - 2013

Under the category of 5000 crores plus market value, DLF and RCom has topped the chart of wealth destroyers since 2008. DLF, which had a market cap of over Rs 1.8 lakh crore in 2008, has seen three-fourths of it being eroded. It is now valued at Rs 47,000 crore.

Similarly from a peak market capitalization of over Rs 1.5 lakh crore in 2008, ADAG group company Reliance Communications has seen an erosion of over 90%. It's currently being valued at around 12000 crores. Other group companies such as Reliance Infrastructure, Reliance Power and Reliance Capital, too, have, during this five year period, seen their valuations take a huge beating.

Friday, March 15, 2013

India Inc Advance Tax Payment - Q4 2013

Q4 2013 Advance Tax payment figures for some of the top companies in India

CompanyAdvance Tax as on March 15, 2013Advance Tax paid in 2012
LICRs 1,080 croreRs 971 crore
Bank of InidaRs 790 croreRs 400 crore
HDFC BankRs 700 croreRs 600 crore
NabardRs 620 croreRs 100 crore
TCSRs 600 croreRs 545 crore
ICICI BankRs 550 croreRs 425 crore
CitibankRs 525 croreRs 500 crore
HDFC LimitedRs 475 croreRs 400 crore
HSBCRs 402 croreRs 450 crore
Ambuja CementRs 280 croreRs 250 crore
IDBI BankRs 265 croreRs 190 crore
HULRs 240 croreRs 200 crore
Deustche BankRs 221 croreRs 300 crore
M&MRs 205 croreRs 178 crore
Nuclear Power Corporation of IndiaRs 166 croreRs 113 crore
Kotak Mahindra BankRs 160 croreRs 122 crore
Central Bank of IndiaRs 151 croreRs 100 crore
J P Morgan ChaseRs 151 croreRs 97 crore
Dena BankRs 150 croreRs 115 crore
Exim BankRs 133 croreRs 114 crore
M&M Financial ServicesRs 115 croreRs 75 crore
General Insurance Corporation of IndiaRs 110 crore-.n.a.-
IndusInd BankRs 105 croreRs 90 crore
Bank of AmericaRs 103 croreRs 73 crore
HindalcoRs 95 croreRs 145 crore
GrasimRs 90 croreRs 90 crore
Bennett Coleman & Co LtdRs 69 croreRs 70 crore
DBS BankRs 50 croreRs 94 crore
Reliance Industries LtdRs 1,034 croreRs 1,130 crore
Bank of BarodaRs 350 croreRs 410 crore

Tuesday, March 12, 2013

Rakesh Jhunjhunwala Stake in A2Z Manitainance

Rakesh Jhunjhunwala has recently sold 1.39% of it's holding in A2Z Maintainance, the company he was so bullish on that he bought over 16 lakh shares on the day of the company’s listing to spurt investor's confidence, to bring down it's holding in the company to less than 20%. 

A2Z Maintainance came out with an IPO in the month of December 2010 at Rs 400 with Rakesh Jhunjhunwala openly advocating the prospect and sound fundamentals of the company and justifying the high price. The stock closed at Rs 333 on listing day itself as market was worried about the high valuation. To revive people's confidence Rakesh bought 16 lakh share that day itself somewhere near Rs 350 thereby trying to make market believe that the stock is attractive at that level. 

Thursday, March 7, 2013

Morgan Stanley overweight on Infosys: Target 3300

Infosys, the second largest software exporter of India, has been doing quite well post it's second quarter result and has seen series of upgrades for the stock. InvestorZclub also recommended the stock in it's post "Contrarian Stocks to Buy in 2013". The stock has run up more than 30% since the recommendation was made at a price of 2300. 

In spite of the huge run up in Infosys stock since past couple of months, Morgan Stanley is still bullish and expects the price to further rise to 3300. It says "While the external environment has not changed materially, the internal operating environment at Infosys has improved significantly". 

Wednesday, March 6, 2013

The tale of two stocks: Prestige vs K S Oils


The tale of two stocks is a new series of posts for our esteemed and informed readers. I think you will find it really interesting as it tries to compare performance of two stocks in somewhat similar industry/category over a time period. This exercise is started as part of the belief that we should not focus on benchmark indices too much but rather concentrate our energy on individual stories and concepts.

In the first post of the series I have tried to compared two midcap stories, TTK Prestige and KS Oils, both of which are in consumption space. The comparison is made over last 6 year period on the highs and lows made by these stocks.

Timtara.com is a fraud: Claims customers

Timtara.com, an online shopping portal, promoted by Arindam Bose (CEO), which used to offer products at huge discounts to their market value to attract customers, is a fraud complains many of it's customers who have done shopping at their site. Bloomberg UTV also showcased an episode on customers who have paid for a product or cancelled the existing order but hasn't yet got their product shipped or refund back. 

They used to send bulk sms'es very frequently regarding the prices at which the products are being offered at their site and people having limited time to avail this offer. I was personally so irritated that I even thought of complaining about the company in police for disturbing me every now and then. 

Tuesday, March 5, 2013

UCO Bank: High Yield and low PBV idea

The Kolkata headquartered UCO bank is a mid sized public sector bank with strong branch network. The stock price of the bank used to languish at around Rs 20 till late 2006 and then went up to as high as Rs 150 in Nov 2010 an appreciation of almost 750% in 4 years. 

That was the time when most of the public sector banks got re-rated. But the recent correction in stock prices of majority of mid caps has made this stock again attractive from 1-2 years perspective. The stock has corrected around 28% in Feb 2013 alone. 

Performance wise, the bank has grown multi-fold since past 6 years in terms of advances, deposits, incomes and profits. The EPS of the company went up from Rs 5.16 in 2008 to 16.68 in 2012 while the dividend per share went up three fold from Rs 1.00 to Rs 3.00 during the same period.

Thursday, February 28, 2013

Budget 2013 Impact on Personal Tax

The Union budget of 2013-14 received thumbs down from the markets as no big bang announcements were made but on individual front couple of key things were announced. 

If you have been thinking about how Budget 2013 going to impact you on personal level, then following are the highlights of changes made on personal tax front:

Commodity Transaction Tax (CTT) in India

CTT, short for Commodity Transaction Tax got introduced in Budget 2013 is meant to reduce speculative trading in non agri commodity as there is no difference in derivatives trading of equity and commodity.

Here are the highlights of the proposed tax:

1. CTT applicable only to non-agri commodities trading in futures such as metals, oil etc

2. The tax rate is same as that of STT in equity futures which is 0.01%

3. CTT will be refunded to business if income from commodity derivatives trading is shown as business income.

CTT is expected to lower the speculative trading in non-agri commodities.

Wednesday, February 27, 2013

Morgan Stanley, Nomura view on Bharti Airtel

Sanity seems to be returning back in the telecom sector after very long time. The consecutive failures of expensive airwaves auction, winding down of operation of Uninor and Siestama Shyam in select circles and gradual increase of call tariffs have made some of the stronger players like Bharti Airtel and Idea Cellular come back into the radar of investors and brokerage houses. 

Morgan Stanley has raised its rating on Bharti Airtel Ltd to "overweight" from "equalweight," while Nomura also raised its rating on Bharti, but to "neutral" from "reduce", citing a recent share price drop. 

Bharti Airtel being the largest telecom company in India with almost one third revenue market share, is expected to recover first and most with environment becoming more conducive for the operators.

Tuesday, February 26, 2013

NSE Nifty PE Ratio chart

With NSE's latest website now you can easily get current as well as historical data about important valuation parameters for markets in general such as PE, PBV, Dividend Yield etc. 

We all talk about stock specific valuation in terms for it's yield, or PE but broader valuation of the market is equally important to consider as however undervalued a stock is if overall market is selling off the stock will fall and there is very high probability that you can get that stock cheaper. Same is true vice-versa i.e one should try to avoid selling stock they hold just because there is gloom and doom in the market but the market valuation is near the historical lows. 


NSE Nifty PE Chart is very handy and provides a quick reference to the overall valuation of the market. Since Nifty consists of 50 large stocks listed on National Stock Exchanges the valuation of the index more or less represents the valuation of market. Though if you want you can also plot charts for other indices such as Junior Nifty, Midcap 50, sector indices etc.

Monday, February 25, 2013

Sell HDFC recommends Goldman Sachs

Goldman Sachs has downgraded HDFC's stock to 'Sell' from 'Neutral', revising the target price to 740 from 790,  as India's largest mortgage lender could face challenges in retaining market share and maintaining profitability amid rising competition in the housing finance sector.

The housing finance sector growth in India moderated to 16% yoy as of December 2012 against 25% CAGR during 2003 to 2012 sue to which the brokerage house expects HDFC's core earnings growth to moderate at 15% CAGR over FY13E-FY15E vs 19% in FY08-FY13E. The stock is currently trading at an expensive valuation of 3.6 times its 12-month forward core mortgage book.

Saturday, February 23, 2013

Warren Buffett tips at a glance


Sell DLF FEB 300 CALL Option at 1.00

Here is a quick trading idea that can deliver 2.26% return in 4 days equivalent to 206% annualized return. The idea is to sell DLF 300 Call which is trading at 1.00 premium.

DLF has had massive run up from 248 level to 281, an appreciation of more than 13%, in 1 week on the back of short covering. The stock touch 52 week high as well. However, considering the PE for the current year and the enterprise valuation of around 70,000 crores, further sustainable upside seems difficult from current levels. 

Based on the above theory one can sell DLF 300 Call at 1.00 premium assuming that the stock will not close above 300 in this series. The trade is for 4 days only as we have the expiry on 28th of Feb.

Thursday, February 21, 2013

The 7 Habits of Highly Effective People Audiobook

"The 7 Habits of Highly Effective People" by Stephen R. Covey is a self help book first published in 1989. More than 4 million copies of it's audiobook and print version are sold worldwide since then. Fortune Magazine says "The 7 Habits of Highly Effective People is by now one of the best-selling books of all time."

The Audio version of the book which sold more than 1.5 million copies worldwide is available on Audible.com (An Amazon Venture). The price of the book is $28.30 but you can get it absolutely free and and that too legally. Audible.com offers one free audiobook of your choice on signing up for 30 day free trial membership. You can take advantage of this scheme to get yourself a copy of this book. Following are the steps you need to follow:

Monday, February 18, 2013

Free stock advice for listed companies in India

In it's endeavor to provide maximum benefit and value to it's loyal readers, InvestorZclub started free stock advice service in early 2011 and has received very good response since then. 

One to one personal free stock query resolution is something not available in India till date and InvestorZclub is proud to have taken this initiative long back thereby creating happy and loyal readers. While CNBC TV18, Bloomberg UTV, Zee Business and other news channels do provide this service but very few people are lucky enough to get a chance to ask their stock query form panelist due to high volume of quries and high call charges to numbers they provide.

If you haven't availed this service yet and want an expert view on any stock listed in Indian Stock Exchanges that you hold or planning to buy then please do post your query using the following link.

Free Stock Advice @ Stock Query Corner.

Tuesday, February 12, 2013

Buy Allahabad Bank: Price to Book Value Attractive


Public Sector Banks has had decent run up in January this year in anticipation of easing NPA pressure but surprisingly that happened for only select public sector banks and majority of them are still witnessing incremental NPA problems. 

Allahabad bank too witnessed incremental growth in bad assets with net NPA at Rs 24.76 billion for the quarter ended Dec. 31, 2012, as compared to Rs 7.96 billion for the quarter ended Dec. 31, 2011, representing an increase of 3.11 times. Consequently the bank reported a fall of 44.54% in net profit to Rs 3.11 billion for the quarter ended Dec. 31, 2012 as compared to Rs 5.60 billion in the same period last year.

Sunday, February 3, 2013

Indian Equities got $4 billion of FII inflows in Jan 2013

FIIs continue to pump money into Indian Stock Markets on the back of improving domestic outlook and expected interest rate cuts in current year. They purchased shares worth Rs 77,859 crore, while they sold equities amounting to Rs 55,800 crore translating into a net inflow of Rs 22,059 crore ($4.05 billion), according to Sebi data. 

This was the seventh straight quarter of net investment by FIIs in the Indian equities market starting July, 2012. In 2012, FIIs had made net investment of Rs 1.28 lakh crore ($24.4 billion) in Indian equities, making it the second best year for the market after a record inflow of Rs 1.33 lakh crore ($29 billion) in 2010.

15 Stock Investment Tips from Rakesh Jhunjhunwala

1. Always go against tide. Buy when others are selling and sell when others are buying.  2. If you believe in the growth prospects o...