Friday, July 26, 2013

HUL Q1 FY 2014 Result Analysis

Hindustan Unilever (HUL) reported average set of numbers for the first quarter of current financial year with tepid volume growth of just 4% YOY. Net profit reported for the quarter was at Rs.1,019 crores on revenues of Rs.6,687.49 crores against net profit of Rs.1331.19 crores on revenues of Rs.6,250.15 crore in the corresponding quarter last year.

Year on Year the net profit has fallen 23% while revenues have gone up 7%. For FY-14, HUL is expected to generate around Rs.28000 crores of revenue and Net profit of Rs.4000 crores, against revenue of Rs.26317 crores and Net profit of Rs.3829 crores in FY-13.


Wednesday, July 24, 2013

Wockhardt Ltd: Valuation bubble burst

Wockhardt LogoMany investors and traders might have been curious to know what went wrong in the well know pharmaceutical company Wockhardt Ltd and why it's stock fell like nine pins in the past couple of months. 

The main reason for the fall is valuation bubble burst. Investors are paying the price of irrational exuberance as Wockhardt continue to crash from the peak of 2170 made in March this year. The stock has fallen 70% since then and has lost around 17000 crores of market value in 4 months . As on 24th July the stock closed at Rs.660 and has a market value of Rs.7244 crores.

Wockhardt Ltd stock price chart


Saturday, July 20, 2013

Reliance Industries Q1 FY - 2014 Result Analysis

Reliance Industries Q1 Result
Reliance Industries (RIL) has announced first quarter results which were inline with street expectations with slight disappointment on GRM front. Following are the key takeaways from the RIL's Q1 FY - 2014 results.

Net profit in Q1 FY - 2014 is lower than previous quarter (Q4 FY-2013). The refining giant reported Rs 5,589 crore in March 2013 while it posted Rs 5,352 crore in June 2013.

Thursday, July 11, 2013

Sell Infosys 1700 Put Option of July series at 6.50

With Infosys q1 result scheduled on 12th July, the Implied Volatility across deep in the money Puts and far out of the money calls are very high resulting in reasonable premiums for even 1700 Put or 3200 calls which are almost 30% away from current market price of 2540.

In our view  1700 Put option is highly safe considering the current valuation of the company and expectation from N. Murthy. 

Traders can sell Infosys 1700 put at current premium of 6.5 thereby earning a return of almost 2.5% in 14 days.

Total Return from the trade:

Considering one is able to sell the July Put option of Infosys 1700 strike price at current market premium of 6.50 he/she can generate following return from this trade:

Wednesday, July 10, 2013

Rakesh Jhunjhunwala stake in Kesoram Industries

Rakesh Jhunjhunwala stake in Kesoram IndustriesRakesh Jhunjhunwala seems to have turned bullish on ailing Kesoram Industries, a diversified company chaired by B.K Birla, having large capacities in Tyres, Cements, Spun Pipes etc.

Rakesh Jhunjhunwala through his wife's account has acquired 60 lakh shares in Kesoram Industries taking his shareholding in the company to around 7%. The shares were acquired through rights issue. The company had recently offered its shareholders to buy additional shares in the ratio of 7:5 at Rs 65 apiece.

The other major investor in the company is LIC holds over 10% of the equity shares. As of March-end, promoters had 27.12% stake in the company.

Tuesday, July 2, 2013

Advantages for traders using Metatrader Signals Service


As described in this post (trading signals by Metatrader 5) forex traders using the trading signal on Metatrader 5 platform have number of advantages over conventional forex brokers and platform providers. Following are some of the key advantages of using Metatrader Signals Service:

Sunday, June 30, 2013

FIIs take back 44000 crores from Indian Capital Markets

Foreign Institutional Investors pulled out more than $7.5 billion from Indian debt and equity put together in the month of June 2013. The withdraw has been the highest from Indian capital markets in a single month ever, thanks to our dilapidated current account deficit and currency. Since April 2013 the Indian currency depreciated more than 10% in 2 months thereby erasing all the benefits of interest rate arbitrage that existed between U.S. and India. 

Investors in U.S. borrow in their home country at less than 2% and invest in Indian govt. and corporate debts at over 8% thereby yielding huge return. But since the overseas investors are borrowing in USD and investing in INR the depreciation in the invested currency beyond the arbitrage points makes it unattractive and worthless for them to stay invested. Similar is the situation for overseas equity investors, as they benchmark their return in their home currency, the depreciation in invested currency negated all the equity returns of April and May this year, which led to significant outflow from Indian stock markets as well.

Saturday, June 29, 2013

World largest gold company stock falls to 20 year low

Barrick Gold (ABX:US), the world's largest gold producing company having reserves of more than 140 million ounces of gold in it's mines all over the world fell to a two decade low recently due to crash in gold prices and some of it's own internal problems.

The average cost of production of 1 ounce of gold at barrick gold is around $950 USD and was selling it at more than 100% premium when the gold price touched $1900 per ounce in 2011. Consequently the stock touched an all time high of $56 on 21st April 2011 and was having a huge market value of around $56 billion then. The stock is now hovering around $15 with a market value of $15.5 billion.

Tuesday, June 25, 2013

How to trade forex based on MetaTrader trading signals from successful traders

Whether you are new to forex trading or an experienced one, trading signal from Metatrader 5 platform will surely enhance your success rate and profits. Trading Signals can help you monitor trades of successful traders and have your terminal automatically reproduce everything your target trader is doing. You need to choose a provider and connect to his signal using setting provided in your client terminal. Once the signal provider is selected all his trades gets executed for your account.

Monday, June 24, 2013

New SEBI Guidelines on Buyback, FIIs and SME Listing

SEBI has introduced some key changes in rules for share buyback by Indian Companies, SME listing and Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs). Following are the highlights of changes introduced:

On buyback

  • Mandatory to buy back 50% of offer size; penalty of 2.5% on failing to do so
  • Buyback period reduced to six months from one year
  • Tender route compulsory if buyback size is over 15% of paid-up capital

Sunday, June 23, 2013

BSE A Group stocks that under-performed Sensex




Since 21st may 2013 BSE Sensex had fallen from 20300 odd levels to around 18800,  a fall of around 7.4% in one month time frame. Though the fall in index is quite large but the cracks in individual stocks have been massive and some stocks from BSE A group has fallen as much as 40 to 50%. Following is the list of stocks from BSE A group which have fallen more than 20% in last one month.

Friday, June 21, 2013

The gloom doom and panic - Is everything all that bad?

With all the talk of FII money flowing back to US markets from India and analysts suggesting levels which are unnerving, there is complete panic out there and people might be thinking what to do now. So in this gloomy scenario, is that all bad or people are over reacting? Lets look at the following points:

1. The Quantitative easing by Fed was anyway expected to start rolling back by year end and people were well aware that this massive money printing cannot go on foreever. As a result there has not been any bubble like situation in equity asset classes around the world. Most of the equity market are reasonably valued and Indian markets are also trading below historical average valuation. Hence there will be valuation support on further fall in equity markets in India. 

Thursday, June 20, 2013

Model Portfolio Update - June 2013

The market crash has provided a descent opportunity to accumulate some good quality stocks at attractive valuations. Hence my model portfolio which had 109k cash has been updated with stock that I believe has attractive valuation and long term story.

Check out the my updated portfolio here: Amit Agarwal's Model Portfolio

Thursday, June 13, 2013

Top 3 Free Futures & Options trading simulators online

Free Options SimulatorsThere are many free trading simulators for cash based buying and selling of stocks on virtual money and almost all the popular ones are good without having huge differences. 

But when it comes to Futures and Options (derivative) trading simulators there are not much choices and the virtual world in this space is pretty much occupied by following three. 

Sell IndusInd Bank: Recommends Citigroup

Citigroup has recommended a "sell" rating on IndusInd Bank with a target price of 455 rupees, citing stretched valuations.
The investment bank says IndusInd has transformed itself into a "unique" bank that is also a non-banking financial company (NBFC).
However, Citi adds that "future growth will likely be less dynamic, amid a tougher macro, and less unique" as other NBFCs are applying for banking licenses.
The stock has been a huge out-performer in the last 2 years and has more than doubled from 250 odd levels in June 2011 to 500 in May 2013. Going forward the credit growth is expected to slowdown due to slowdown in India GDP and capital expenditures which is expected to put pressure on Banks and financial institutions in general.

Wednesday, June 12, 2013

Fitch India Rating History


Fitch has maintained the long term rating of India at BBB- in 2013 but revised to outlook in 2013 to Stable from Negative in 2012. India had negative outlook in May 2001 and post that it was stable till 2012 when the outlook was revised again to negative. Stable outlook should provide some relief to fast depreciating rupee and help in getting some flows in debts and equity.

Sunday, June 9, 2013

Nifty support @ 5800

After the relentless rise in the month of April and May this year market is finally showing some correction, thanks to our domestic problems such as currency depreciation, reform slowdown and general election next year.

Nifty has corrected 5% in the last 20 days and is witnessing selling pressure at higher levels beyond 6100. Defty (dollar nifty) has corrected 8% in last 20 days due to massive correction in INR vs USD.

Though the upside seems fairly capped at 6100, the downside also seems to be capped at 5800. As on 7th June the Nifty closed at 5880. Below are the indicators which are suggesting limited downside for Nifty below 5800 in the current month. However in case INR blows out completely or some grave news comes out of Europe or US, the 5800 level could get broken and the market could slide down significantly as the major support would have got broken.

Thursday, June 6, 2013

Educomp Solutions: The rise and fall of the euphoria

Educomp Solutions is another example of investor's exuberance and irrational behavior which, like others, ended in blood bath. So what went wrong with Educomp and why it went up crazy and then crashed? Lets take a brief look at the timeline:

22nd Dec 2005 - Educomp Solution IPO (issue price = Rs 125) closed got hugely oversubscribed on projected education boom in India. At Rs 125 the company was valued at a reasonable market value of Rs 200 crores. The Face Value of each share was Rs. 10

13th Jan 2006 - The shares of Educomp got listed on NSE and BSE and went to as high as Rs 315 but closed at Rs. 285. The shares 

28th Mar 2006 - The stock price touched 400 level and a PE valuation of more than 45. People started talking about exponential growth in the multimedia educational product of the company and justified high valuation.

30th  Mar 2007 - The stock price touched Rs 1000 mark and a PE valuation of 42 times as the company Net profit more than doubled from 14 crores in FY-06 to 38 crores in FY- 07. Within 15 months from the listing the stock and the market value went up 7 times to Rs 1600 crores.

Tuesday, June 4, 2013

Buy RIL on dips in the range 770 - 780

  • Reliance Industries witnessing strong support in 765 to 770 band and has bounced back many times from those levels in past 10 months.
  • Fundamentally the outlook beyond 2014 looks positive as the gas price agreement will be over and there could be good amount of increase in per mmbtu prices
  • The stock is attractively valued based on FY-15 EPS
  • Has been an underperformer since last 3 - 4 years which has resulted in significant base building for the stock.
  • Fundamentally or technically the stock seems to have limited downside below 760 levels.

Friday, May 31, 2013

India GDP Growth Rate in last 10 years: 2003 - 2013



In last 10 years India GDP grew at a compounded annual growth rate of around 7% with growth rate as high as 9.5% in FY 2006 and 9.3% in more recent year 2011 to as low as 4% in 2003 to 5% in the latest year 2013. 

FII Inflow Data in India since 1993: Debt and Equity

Since the Indian economy was liberalized in 1991 and Foreign institutional investors were allowed to participate in Indian Stock Markets, flood of money has come to Indian equities and debt instruments since then. Though it remained a bit sluggish in initial years but has picked up pace since 2004 when we received around 40000 crores from FIIs. 

In 20 year period between FY-1993 and FY-2013 we had only two years FY-1999 and FY-2008 when FII were net sellers and taken money out. FY-2013 witnessed record inflows of 140000 crores or $26 billion USD which is more than the inflows of first 10 years put together. 

Friday, May 24, 2013

MQL 5 Market: The Best Marketplace for Trading Robots and Software

Trading Robots or Automated trading system / software has gained huge importance in the last few years specially in forex environment, and slowly the automated trading or algorithm trading is catching up in the stock markets as well. 

As far as trading robots are concerned there are plenty with some absolutely free and some very expensive depending upon the popularity and track record. The dis-advantage of trading forex through trading robots is that there is no human intervention and the software does everything according to what's there in the algorithm, however this is it's biggest strength as well as it works on strict rules written for profit maximization and loss minimization. 

Thursday, May 23, 2013

Make 1.25% return in 5 days

Japanese Stock Market fall of more than 7% and quick appreciation of Yen vs USD on the back of fear of inflation in Japan has led to a very high conviction trade that can generate more than 1.2% return in 5 days.

The trade is to sell 1750 May call option of Maruti at current market premium of 3.2 expecting that Maruti should not cross 1750 levels in next 5 days.The recent month closing high for the stock was around 1742.

Total return from the strategy

Monday, May 20, 2013

Just Dial Valuation Very Expensive - Avoid

Just Dial provides search services on the information and user reviews from its local business, product and services database across India. Its search service is available to users through multiple platforms: Internet, mobile, telephone (voice) and text (SMS). 

In fiscal 2012, the company addressed over 254.3 million search requests across its platforms. As of December 31, 2012, the company was conducting approximately 195,100 campaigns for the paid advertisers.

Momentum Trading - Is it a good trading strategy?

The answer depends on what kind of risk return profile this strategy has and whether your temperament matches up to the temperament required in this strategy. So it's important to understand the contours of the Momentum trading style first to make a decision.

Technically momentum is mass times velocity and Physics says that if an object's velocity of movement is accompanied by large mass it will have very high tendency to continue to move in it's direction until and unless a massive force try to stop it or change it's direction. It has been witnessed that the same physics applies to stocks and markets as well. Whatever be the direction, if the movement of the stock is accompanied by larger volume it will have natural tendency to continue to move in that direction. 

Friday, May 17, 2013

Sell ITC 360 Call Option at 1.60 premium

With ITC Q4 result out which was largely inline with market expectations, the stock has shown muted reaction. The stock offcourse is very expensive trading at 35 times forward year EPS and is having huge market valuation of 2.66 lakh crores.

Considering the recent price action and overall valuation of the stock once can easily sell May series ITC's 360 call option at the current market premium of Rs 1.30.

Total Return from the trade:

Considering one is able to sell the May Call option of ITC 360 strike price at current market premium of 1.30 he/she can generate following return from this trade:

Tuesday, May 14, 2013

ROE: Return on Equity or Return on Ego?


ROE is off-course Return on Equity that measures returns generated on shareholders wealth and companies across sectors try hard to maximize it. But as far as Hotel Industry in India is concerned it seems ROE is certainly Return on Ego as the promoters of most of the hotel companies in India went on to expand on leverage and at any cost without considering the return economics in mind. This is primarily due to the fact that there is a certain aspiration and glamour around hotels, especially in the high-end luxury segment, and many developers get in the race to build grand properties rather than one that will give them the best financial return.

Tuesday, May 7, 2013

Best Software for Trading Signals on Forex and Stocks

Metatrader 5 has taken trading based on Trading Signal to an altogether new level. Now beside having technical charts providing you trading signals for your trades in forex and stock markets now you can subscribe trading signals from the most successful traders and copy their trades for maximum profits. As far as trading platform is concerned, Metatrader is undoubtedly the best as it offers highest number of functions among all competitors and has been in existence for over a decade now. It also commands over 80% market share.

Friday, April 26, 2013

Avoid Maruti Suzuki at any price above 1300

Three significant reasons for being bearish on Maruti Suzuki in spite of optically good Q4 Fy-13 results.



1. Merger of Suzuki Powertrain with MSI is EPS negative and very bad deal for existing MSI shareholders:

Here is how:
------------------
Suzuki Power train has been merged with MSI at very expensive enterprise valuation of more than 2000 crores. Before merger Suzuki had 70% stake in the company while rest 30% was held by Maruti. Financial of Suzuki Power train is as follows:

Saturday, April 20, 2013

Reliance Globalcom deal with Batelco hugely neagtive for RCOM Stock Holders

Yes you are reading it right, the street might be excited about the recent talk of Reliance Globalcom deal with Batelco, we at InvestorZclub believe that the expected deal , that could possibly value Reliance Globalcom at around 6500 crores, will be hugely negative for the RCOM shareholders and mathematically stock should come down to levels of Rs 62 post deal conclusion. 

Here is the math:
------------------

At the end of Q3 FY-13, RCOM had net debt of around 37,500 crores, and the stock was valued at around Rs.70 during Feb 2013 (the month of Q3 result announcement) which valued the equity portion of RCOM at around 14000 crores.

So total enterprise valuation during Feb 2013 was approx: 37500 + 14000 = 51,500 crores

With expected consolidated EBIDTA of 6500 crores for FY-13, the company was valued at around 8 times EV to EBIDTA which was 23% higher than the Airtel's current EV to EBIDTA valuation of 6.5 times.

Monday, April 15, 2013

Sell Infosys 2000 PUT at 6.40

With so much noise about Infosys having delivered pathetic set of numbers, here is an opportunity to pocket quick 1.7% return in 8 trading days by being just contrarian and selling Infosys 2000 put at CMP of 6.40. 

The stock had fallen 25% in two days and is approaching very attractive valuation levels. At 2000 Infosys will be valued at 11.5 times FY-14 EPS, above that cash based buyers will get at least 45 bucks as dividend next year and 27 bucks this year which is total dividend of 72 bucks in 1 year time frame. Also 2000 should act as very strong psychological support. Apart from that with 22000 crores in cash the company is available at an enterprise valuation of just 1,05,000 crores which is almost 2 times FY-14 sales.

Sunday, April 14, 2013

Indian Stock Market could touch new high in 2014

Fall in gold and crude prices should repair 70% of the wounds that Indian economy is having while the rest will be cured by reform measures and change in govt. 

Gold supply far exceeding demand in 2013 and 2014 coupled with cost of production at $1200 vis-a-vis selling price of $1500 makes a case for massive selling in gold even at current levels. 

At InvestorZclub we have been very bearish on gold since the start of 2012 based on one very simple logic that if Aluminium which has huge application can trade at price 10-20 percent below the cost of production why should gold, which has almost no industrial application and is just collected for investment purpose, should continue to oblige miners with 50 percent margins.

Similarly crude as well has very negative outlook on the same lines of low cost of production vs high selling prices and fall in consumption demand. Gold and crude price fall put together should reduce India's current account deficit outlook for FY- 14 at around 4% of GDP which is an extremely good number relative to the FY-12 CAD of 5.2%.

Wednesday, April 10, 2013

Stock Options Strike Prices Interval on NSE

National Stock Exchange (NSE) with effect from April 1, 2013 has implemented a new scheme of Strike Prices Interval in Stock Option contracts. This new scheme has reduced the difference in Strike Price of 103 Stock Options.


Salient Features:

1. Difference between two strike prices in Stock Options is reduced. for e.g. previously in L&T, the strikes prices available in Options segment for Call and Put were at 1350-1400-1450 at an interval of 50 points. Now the strike are available at an interval of 20 points i.e. 1380-1400-1420 and further.

2. The new strike scheme is applicable from April 1, 2013 for all stock option contracts across all expiry. The strikes already introduced in April 2013 and May 2013 expiry months shall continue to be available till their respective expiry.

Wednesday, April 3, 2013

History of Gold Bull and Bear Phases

Are you in the camp of believers who think that Gold prices never fall and just moves in upward direction with very small correction on it's way? Whether your answer is Yes or No, following snapshot is going to stun you for sure. Like equities Gold also encounters heavy correction and periodically gets into bear phases. 

No asset class can move in only one direction which is a wisdom known to all of us but due to short term myopia and memories of recent past most of us now believes that Gold will never correct because in the history of Gold price recording the current bull run has been the longest in terms of time frame and has brought the best returns during the last five decades.

Tuesday, April 2, 2013

Top 5 Stock Screeners for Indian Stocks (BSE / NSE)

With over 1600 stocks listed on NSE and around 5000 stocks listed on BSE, selecting stocks for investment is not easy if there is no filtration mechanism. For example if you were to find companies which are having market value of more than 5000 crores but less than 10000 crores and a PE multiple of less than 6, it would take days to manually filter stocks matching this criteria. 

Fortunately some of the companies in India are providing stock screeners free of cost to help you in your research and filter stocks based on several quantitative parameters. Following is the list of top 5 stock screeners for Indian Stock Markets.

Tuesday, March 26, 2013

Rakesh Jhunjhunwala's Flop Stocks

Many won't believe that Rakesh Jhunjhunwala, the so called Warren Buffet of India, has given more misses than hits and any average investor who would have copied his moves since past 5 years should be sitting on huge losses.

Making money in Indian markets have become increasingly tough and that to if a portfolio is largely skewed towards midcap then there is no stopping to the pain. Some of the midcaps that the big bull was heavily bullish on has crashed more than 90% from their highs of 2008. For instance A2Z maintenance is down around 96% from it's IPO price of Rs 400. Similarly Nagarjuna Constructions is down more than 90% from it's high of 400 in 2007.

Sunday, March 24, 2013

Historical Statistical Volatility - Calculate and Apply

Historical Volatility (Statistical Volatility) is the annualized standard deviation of past stock price movements. It measures the daily price changes in the stock over the past year. The best part of this indicator is that it can be used to predict the probability of a stock reaching a particular target price and thus can help you in building a position in stock or an option contract. 

However it must be noted that while historical volatility can be indicative of future volatility, it can also differ greatly from future volatility, depending on what was driving the price changes during the past period. Major expected news items are more important drivers of big moves in the stock price in the near future.

Morningstar publishes historical volatility data for individual stocks and indices. For example if you need to check what is the statistical volatility of IBM, key-in the ticker and look for the highlighted area below. It shows volatility data for 1 month to 3 years. 

Thursday, March 21, 2013

Amit Agarwal's Model Portfolio

****************************
Update as on 30th June 2025
****************************
Bought 261 shares of Karnataka Bank. The ceo exit provides a great opportunity to enter the stock at just 0.6 time current book value. At 12-13% roe it deserves at least 1 time book value multiple. So in 3 years its a 2X opportunity.

Portfolio as on 30th June 2025:

Stock                           Qty                    Avg. Price      Investment
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
Selan Exploration      160                   250               40000
Jindal Drilling             50                    240               12000
Indusind Bank            400                  700               280000                
Karnataka Bank          261                  196.5             51300                
Cash                                                                              Nil
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
Total                                                                            3,83,300

****************************
Update as on 12th March 2025
****************************
Added 400 shares of Indusind bank at inr 700/share to the portfolio.

Portfolio as on 12th Mar 2025:

Stock                           Qty                    Avg. Price      Investment
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
Selan Exploration      160                   250               40000
Jindal Drilling             50                    240               12000
Indusind Bank            400                  700               280000                
Cash                                                                              51,300
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
Total                                                                            3,83,300

Rationale:

#Indusind Bank has fallen over 60% from its 52 wk high of 1700 approx (microfin + derivative issue) and the problem that its facing is a lot magnitude lower than what icici bank was facing during 2015 to 2018 period and it fell top to bottom only 54% and bottomed out at 1.4 time PBV. But due to internet and the velocity of newsflow along with algo trades the stock has collapsed at such rapid pace which has stunned the participants. But its a story across the world due to tech. TSL, NVDA Bitcoin all falling 40-50% at a whim and then again goes up equally fast. This is the new normal. Leverage and Technolgy together has amplified the ferocity of movements in stocks.

With 865 book value on 1st April 2025 and at least 950 on 1st April 2026, with all the negative sentiment getting priced in next 5 months, positive reports will start flowing in. The stock should reach 950 at least by 31st July 2025 (around 4.5 months from now). Eventually the stock should start trading at 1425 (1.5 time PBV) by 30th April 2026.

****************************
Update as on 29th Aug 2022
****************************
# Earned 12 Liquid bees unit till date.
# Sold 382 liquid bees unit for a cash flow of 382000
# Added 160 shares of Selan Exploration @ 250 for an investment of 40000
# Added 50 shares of Jindal Drilling @ 240 for an inv of 12000

Portfolio as on 29th Aug 2022:

Stock                           Qty                    Avg. Price      Investment
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
Selan Exploration      160                   250               40000
Jindal Drilling             50                    240               12000
Cash                                                                              3,31,300
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
Total                                                                            3,83,300




****************************
Update as on 20th Jan 2021
****************************
# Exiting all the stock positions to go 100% cash.

# Primary reason being the market on steroid which is exactly the opposite of what was happening in march 2020. At 40 time pe multiple based on FY-20 EPS the market is extremely overvalued and stretched. Even if we assume FY-23 Nifty EPS of 700 (almost double of FY-20), it is still trading at 20 times forward multiple.

# At mid sized bank the deposit is yielding 8% or 12.5 pe multiple while the stock market is trading at 40 times on TTM basis and 20 times on an optimistic eps assumption for FY-23 FY. I would rather keep my money in debt rather take risk on stock at current levels. Hence the cash call.

# Sold Tata Motors DVR 1600 shares @ 106 thereby generating a cash of 1,69,600 /-
# Bought 170 liquid bees at 1000 each.
# Total portfolio stands at 3,71,300/-

Portfolio as on 20th Jan 2021:

Stock                  Qty                    Avg. Price      Investment
----------------------------------------------------------------
Liquid Bees      370                   1000               370,000
Cash                                                                      1,300
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
Total                                                                    3,71,300


****************************
Update as on 7th Jan 2021
****************************

Updating the model portfolio after a big gap pf almost 1.5 years and there has been dramatic moves in stock markets across the world during that time. The pandemic made everyone felt that the world is coming to an end but things stabilized after some time and we are starring at all time highs in all the markets globally. The stimulus packages across the world to soften the impact of covid on economy is creating a downward pressure on currencies across the world and that is fueling inflation in all the commodities.

It was the first time in history that Crude oil futures contract went into negative (-40) in march 2020 which essentially meant that producers were paying for you to hold the stock. That was unprecedented. By the end of the year things reversed 180 degree and commodities are witnessing massive inflation. 

One such commodity stock is in our portfolio which is tata steel and steel prices being at all time high, the sentiment is very bullish on the stock. Hence to cash the euphoria, the holding in tata steel is being vacated. Also selling ongc at loss since the company has started making losses due to mismanagement, high debt, low gas prices etc. Since govt revenue is under pressure, likely OFS issues and capital raising will keep the stock under pressure.

# Sold Tata steel 200 shares at 720 thereby generating a cash of 144000 and profit of 75000, a return of 108% in 1.5 years.

# Sold ONGC 500 shares at 98 thereby generating a cash of 49000 and a loss of -15500.

# Purchased liquid bees worth 2 lacs

Portfolio as on 7th Jan 2020:

Stock                  Qty                    Avg. Price      Investment
----------------------------------------------------------------
TMDVR^              1600                 93                    148,800
Liquid Bees      200                   1000               200,000
Cash                                                                           1,700
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
Total                                                                    3,50,500

^ Tata motors dvr is kept intact as this appears to be the most undervalued stock in cnx 500. Due to brexit, pandemic and massive fall in CV sales in India, the DVR stcok went to a low of around 29 in march 2020. At that time the market panicked and discounted bankruptcy for the stock. But with all the cost cutting measures undertaken and significant improvement in local PV sales along with expectation of good FY-22 sales in CV and PV, the company is expected to do at least 35000 crores of operating profit on consolidated basis which value the company at 0.87 time OP at cmp of Rs. 80. That is absurd valuation and beyond my understanding as to why such kind of valuation is given to a company which is generating over $40 billion sales, employs over 80000 people and is a significant company of Tata Stable. Governance, scope of electrification should itself give much higher OP multiples in future. 
so even if we discount OP multiple of 2 times next year then the DVR stock must be valued at Rs 183 on very conservative basis on the expanded equity shares of 382 crore shares after capital infusion by Tata Sons.

****************************
Update as on 17th Sep 2019
****************************

## Sold PSB 1000 Shares @ 20 thereby taking a loss of Rs. 18000 
## Sold Suryalaxmi Cotton 600 Shares @ 22 thereby taking a loss of Rs. 27000
## Sold Idea 1000 Shares @ 5 thereby taking a loss of Rs. 37000
## Sold 400 Shares of Goldiam at 117 thereby making a profit of 20000

## Earned 2 units of Liquid bees on 100 units of holding worth 2000
## Sold 102 Liquid Bees worth RS. 1,02,000

## Bought Tata Steel 200 shares at 345
## Bought Tata Motors DVR 800 shares at 56
## Bought 500 shares of ONGC at 129
## Total Cash Generated from Selling is Rs 1,87,000
## Total Cash used in purchasing new shares is 178300



Portfolio as on 17th Sep 2019:


Stock                  Qty                    Avg. Price      Investment
----------------------------------------------------------------
ONGC                 500                   129                   64,500    
TMDVR              1600                 93                    148,800
Tata Steel           200                   345                   69,000
Cash                                                                           8,700
-----------------------------------------------------------------------

Total                                                                    2,91,000

** The Portfolio churn has reduced the networth at cost by roughly 16% since 7th March 2019. Exposure to large global stocks should make up for the losses in coming months. Midcaps and small caps might have bottomed out but lack of confidence, recent memory of bloodbath and poor income growth due to economic turmoil will keep their prices in check and investors are not going to bid up and buy in hurry except selective stories. Hence the exposure has been entirely shifted to undervalued large caps.

****************************
Update as on 7th March 2019
****************************

## Sold Balrampur Chini Mills 1000 Shares @ 140 thereby making a profit of 65500 
## Bought Tata Motors DVR 400 Shares @ 95 bringing down the average price to 130.
## Cash residual used to purchase Liquid Bees 100 units for Rs. 1,00,000


Portfolio as on 7th March 2019:

Stock                  Qty                    Avg. Price      Investment
----------------------------------------------------------------
PSB                     1000                  38                    38,000    
Goldiam             400                    67                    26,800
TMDVR              800                   130                104,000
Suryalaxmi        600                    57                    34,200
Idea                     1000                  42                   42,000
Liquid Bees        100                     1000            100,000
Cash                                                                           2,189
-----------------------------------------------------------------------


Total                                                                    3,47,189

****************************
Update as on 24th Sep 2018
****************************

Allocating cash further to reduce cost of our holdings after massive panic correction.

## Bought Balrampur Chini Mills 500 Shares @ 75 
## Bought Tata Motors DVR 200 Shares @ 128
## Bought Suryalakshmi Cotton Mills 300 Shares @ 44
## Bought Idea Cellular 1000 Shares @ 42   

##  Earned Roughly 3 units of Liquid Bees on 115000 Since April.

##  Sold 118 units of Liquid Bees worth 118000.

Portfolio as on 24th Sep 2018:

Stock                  Qty                    Avg. Price      Investment
----------------------------------------------------------------
Balram chini     1000                  74.5               74,500
PSB                     1000                  38                  38,000    
Goldiam             400                    67                  26,800
TMDVR              400                   165                66,000
Suryalaxmi        600                    57                  34,200
Idea                     1000                  42                  42,000
Cash                                                                            189
-----------------------------------------------------------------------


Total                                                                    2,81,689


****************************
Update as on 12th April 2018
****************************

Allocating cash to buy some beaten down names after decent correction since the portfolio was liquidated.

## Bought Balrampur Chini Mills 500 Shares @ 74 
## Bought Punjab Sind Bank 1000 Shares @ 38 
## Bought Goldiam International 400 Shares @ 67
## Bought Tata Motors DVR 200 Shares @ 202
## Bought Suryalakshmi Cotton Mills 300 Shares @ 70   

##  Earned Roughly 5 units of Liquid Bees on 273000 till date.
##  Sold 163 units of Liquid Bees worth 163000.


Portfolio as on 12th April 2018:

Stock                  Qty                    Avg. Price      Investment
----------------------------------------------------------------
Balram chini     500                    74                   37,000
PSB                     1000                  38                  38,000    
Goldiam             400                    67                  26,800
TMDVR              200                   202                40,400
Suryalaxmi        300                    70                  21,000
Liquid Bees        115                     1000            115,000
Cash                                                                            489
-----------------------------------------------------------------------


Total                                                                    2,78,689


****************************
Update as on 13th Nov 2017
****************************

Liquidating the entire portfolio and sitting on sideline for opportunities after a decent correction.

## Sold Bharti Airtel 150 Shares @ 500 
## Sold Majesco 100 Shares @ 524 
## Sold Mindtree 100 Shares @ 504 
## Sold HGS 50 Shares @ 560 
## Sold Sunpharma 75 Shares @ 535 
## Sold Coal India 100 Shares @ 275 



Portfolio as on 13th Nov 2017:

Stock                  Qty                    Avg. Price      Investment
----------------------------------------------------------------
LiquidBees      273                                              2,73,000
Cash                                                                                689
-----------------------------------------------------------------------

Total                                                                    2,73,689


The portfolio witnessed 22% appreciation in just 3 months which suggest the kind of euphoria getting built in the stock markets. It was not expected when I picked stocks just 3 months back. This appreciation is not bcoz of my superior stock picking skills but bcoz of benign environment. From portfolio standpoint there are no good opportunities easily available at these levels and hence taking a call on sitting on 100% cash. It seems globally a significant correction is imminent as the markets across the world have been running as if there is no tomorrow and ignoring all the potential risk. Staying invested is mutual funds mandate but retail shareholders have the choice and flexibility to stay on cash when nothing is worth buying.    


****************************
Update as on 10th Aug 2017
****************************

Utilizing the sharp fall in Sun Pharma and Coal India to allocate cash in the portfolio.

## Bought Sunpharma 75 Shares @ 460 
## Bought Coal India  100 Shares @ 240


Portfolio as on 10th Aug 2017:

Stock                  Qty                    Avg. Price      Investment
----------------------------------------------------------------
Bharti Airtel     150                     344                51,600
Majesco             100                    385                 38,500    
Mindtree           100                    448                 44,800
HGS                   50                      588                 29,400
Sun Pharma     75                       460                 34,500
Coal India        100                     240                 24,000
Cash                                                                            264
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
Total                                                                    2,23,064




****************************
Update as on 7th April 2017
****************************
Restarting the portfolio with some names where significant opportunities are emerging. 

Bharti Airtel: After all the scare that RJIO created in the telecom market, I believe the strongest player will only get stronger from here onwards. Bharti Airtel is the last to fall if competitive intensity carry on at the same pace. In this along with the sector govt revenue is also getting impacted. Hence some sanity should come to this space and should make very good return in next 2 years.

Majesco: A U.S based P&C insurer trading at EV less than sales while its nearest competitor guidewire trades at many times sales. I expect it to generate multibagger returns in 2 years if management continue to make deal wins from large insurers. 

Hinduja Global: The stock is trading at roughly one third EV to sales  based on FY-18 numbers.

Mindtree: One of the best mid tier IT services company. I expect in next 12 months the policy related issues in U.S will get largely over and the stock should start commanding at least 16-18 PE multiples on FY-19 earnings.

## Earned Rs. 3000 on our Liquid bees investments in 4 months. Sold all the holdings in Liquid Bees

## Bought Bharti Airtel 150 shares at 344

## Bought Majesco 100 shares at 385

## Bought Mindtree 100 shares at 448

## Bought Hinduja Global 50 shares at 588

Portfolio as on 7th April 2017:

Stock                  Qty                    Avg. Price      Investment
----------------------------------------------------------------
Bharti Airtel     150                     344                51,600
Majesco             100                    385                 38,500    
Mindtree           100                    448                 44,800
HGS                   50                      588                 29,400
Cash                                                                      58,764
-----------------------------------------------------------------------


Total                                                                    2,23,064


****************************
Update as on 1st Dec 2016
****************************
Considering the headwinds in terms of chaotic demonetization and its likely impact on growth along with GST rollout which is likely to be negatively impacting the GDP in short term, the portfolio is being liquidated to stay in cash for some time. 

Also there are many events lined up such as Italian Referendum, U.S rate hike, and the impact of GAAR being applicable from 1st April 2017. FIIs did almost 20000 crores of selling in the month of Nov in equities and similar amount in debt as well. All these things are pointing towards either a correction or a lack luster market for next 5-6 months. 

So in my view Fixed Income is relatively safer place to park money at this point of time from the risk-reward perspective.

## Sold Idea cellular 400 shares at 74 resulting in loss of Rs.3200
## Sold Bharti Airtel 50 shares @ 316 resulting in loss of Rs. 1600
## Sold BOI 300 shares at @ 116 resulting in loss of Rs. 5700
## Sold Mastek 200 shares @ 142 resulting in gain of Rs. 2400
## Sold L&T Infotech 50 shares @ 650 resulting in gain of Rs. 1700
## Sold Selan Exploration 100 shares at 193 resulting in gain of Rs. 300
## Sold ITC 100 shares @ 233 resulting in gain of Rs. 700
## Sold Ambuja Cements 100 shares @ 207 resulting in gain of Rs. 1200
## Sold Sun Pharma 20 Shares at 720 resulting in gain of Rs. 600

## Bought Liquid Bees 200 at 1000

The above transactions resulted in loss of Rs. 3600 and the net portfolio is having only Liquid Bees worth 2 lakhs and cash Rs. 20,064. 

Stock                  Qty                    Avg. Price      Investment
----------------------------------------------------------------

Liquid Bees       200                 1000                     2,00,000
Cash                                                                              20,064

-----------------------------------------------------------------------
Total                                                                        2,20,064



****************************
Update as on 22nd Nov 2016
****************************
## Bought ITC ltd 100 shares @ 226
## Bought Ambuja Cements 100 shares @ 195
## Bought Sun Pharma 20 shares @ 690

Stock                  Qty                    Avg. Price      Investment
----------------------------------------------------------------
Idea Cellular     400                 82                     32,800 
Bharti Airtel     50                     348                  17,400
BOI                    300                   136                  40,800    
Mastek              200                   130                  26,000
L&T Infotech   50                      616                  30,800
Selan Exp         100                    190                  19,000
ITC                    100                    226                  22,600
Ambuja            100                    195                   19,500
Sun Pharma    20                      690                  13,800
Cash                                                                           964
-----------------------------------------------------------------------

Total                                                                    2,23,664


****************************
Update as on 06th Oct 2016
****************************
## Sold Cairn India 50 shares @ 228.5 thereby generating a gain of Rs. 1100
## Bought Mastek Ltd 200 shares @ 130
## Bought L&T Infotech 50 shares @ 616
## Bought 100 Selan exploration 100 shares @ 190

Stock                  Qty                    Avg. Price      Investment
----------------------------------------------------------------
Idea Cellular     400                 82                     32,800 
Bharti Airtel     50                     348                  17,400
BOI                    300                   136                  40,800    
Mastek              200                   130                  26,000
L&T Infotech   50                      616                  30,800
Selan Exp         100                    190                  19,000
Cash                                                                      56,864
-----------------------------------------------------------------------

Total                                                                    2,23,664

Key Points:

## Mastek Ltd is trading at a valuation equivalent to cash and investment (13% stake in Majesco). The company is focused on IT services now and should do well going forward as Mastek 4.0 matures and clients get results. Its U.S subsidiary Digility has started generating business and the co. is looking to acquire a small to mid sized IT service co. in U.S to reestablish its position in the worlds largest IT market.

## L&T Infotech is probably the cheapest mid sized IT service company in India and is trading at roughly 10 times FY-18 EPS

## Cairn India is replaced by Selan Exploration which is also in to oil production but is a much smaller player compared to cairn India. However the company is cash rich and worst of oil fall seems to be behind the company. With huge 2p reserves the company has potential to generate significant cash flow going forward.


****************************
Update as on 02nd Sep 2016
****************************
## Utilized sharp fall in Idea Cellular as the stock has now reached very attractive valuations. Bought 400 shares at 82 thereby making an investment of Rs. 32800

Stock                  Qty                    Avg. Price      Investment
----------------------------------------------------------------
Idea Cellular     400                 82                     32,800 
Cairn                  50                   206.55              10,327
Bharti Airtel     50                     348                  17,400
BOI                    300                   136                  40,800    
Cash                                                                      1,21,237
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
Total                                                                    2,22,564

Couple of points:

1. Market has panicked about Bharti And idea cellular while the major impact of JIO launch will be on Uninor, Videocon, Aircel & Rcom. Excluding Bharti, Idea and Vodafone there are 400 million connection which would get impacted first.

2. JIO is actually protecting ARPU and targatting 500 bucks a month from each user. If it happen it will be a god send opportunity for incumbent operators as their ARPUs also goes up. 

3. In 5 years time there will be at max 4 large players with all marginal players consolidated and a very strong industry with all the characteristics of an excellent business like consumption item, significant cash flow, very high entry barrier etc.

****************************
Update as on 31st Aug 2016
****************************
## Utilized sharp rally in Reliance Capital to book profits. Sold 30 shares at 535 thereby making a gain of Rs. 2250
## Cash Level increased by Rs. 16,050 taking total cash in portfolio to Rs. 1,54,037


Stock                  Qty                    Avg. Price      Investment
----------------------------------------------------------------
Cairn                  50                   206.55              10,327
Bharti Airtel     50                     348                  17,400
BOI                    300                   136                  40,800    
Cash                                                                      1,54,037
-----------------------------------------------------------------------

Total                                                                    2,22,564

Note: The portfolio is sitting on roughly 70% cash for the lack of any investing opportunity.

****************************
Update as on 19th Aug 2016
****************************
## Utilized sharp rally in Cairn India to re-balance the portfolio. Sold 300 shares at 212 thereby making a gain of Rs. 1635
## Cash Level increased by Rs. 63,600 taking total cash in portfolio to Rs. 1,37,987


Stock                  Qty                    Avg. Price      Investment
----------------------------------------------------------------

Cairn                  50                   206.55              10,327

Bharti Airtel     50                     348                  17,400

R Capital           30                     460                  13,800
BOI                    300                   136                  40,800    
Cash                                                                      1,37,987
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
Total                                                                    2,20,314

Note: Market is highly exuberant on the back of foreign liquidity which is making many stocks in the market very expensive. Staying 100% invested in this kind of market leaves no room for margin of safety and hence will wait for correction to dabble into stocks which we like as a business and are comfortable paying the price. Staying invested at current levels might give us a max of 10% return over next one year on index level but the risk on the downside is quite large in case something goes wrong globally or locally. 

In terms of local risk, the risk to inflation is slowly beginning to reemerge which will get exaggerated if crude moves to $60 by the end of this year. This is turn will put pressure on our currency which could depreciate to 70+ in a year's time as most of the world is facing deflation and U.S is having less than 2% inflation while we are having more than 6%. Earnings have been largely disappointing for 9th quarter in a row and is expected to stay weak in Q2 as well thereby pulling down the eps estimate once again for FY-2017. With all the good news being priced in the stock prices today, it doesn't make sense to buy the euphoria. As value investor it's always the other way round. We buy the fear and sell the greed. 

As on 19th Aug the model portfolio (at market price) has delivered over 115% of absolute return since 21st March 2013 (portfolio start date with Rs. 1 lakh capital) while Nifty has delivered 52% return since then. Since we have already outperformed the market significantly we w
ill wait on the sidelines for sometime before market gives us an opportunity to utilize cash in our portfolio.

****************************
Update as on 14th July 2016
****************************

## Sold Exide 100 shares at 182 resulting in a loss of Rs. 300

## Sold Adani Ports 100 shares at 218 resulting in a gain of Rs. 3600 (Gain of around 20%)

## Cairn India went ex-dividend (Rs. 3 per share) in early July resulting in gain of Rs.1050

## Net Portfolio stands increased by Rs.4350 to Rs. 2,18,679





Stock                  Qty                    Avg. Price      Investment

----------------------------------------------------------------

Cairn                  350                   206.55            72,292

Bharti Airtel     50                     348                  17,400

R Capital           30                     460                  13,800
BOI                    300                   136                  40,800    
Cash                                                                      74,387
-----------------------------------------------------------------------

Total                                                                    2,18,679


****************************
Update as on 18th May 2016
****************************
## Sold JK Paper 200 shares at 52 realizing gains of Rs.3600 (53% profit in 14 months)
## Added 100 additional shares of BOI @ 84 thereby bringing down the avg cost to 136
## Added Adani Ports 100 shares at 182
## Net Portfolio stands increased by 3600 to Rs. 2,14,329

Stock                  Qty                    Avg. Price      Investment
----------------------------------------------------------------
Cairn                  350                   206.55            72,292
Bharti Airtel     50                     348                  17,400
R Capital           30                     460                  13,800
Exide                 100                    185                  18,500
BOI                    300                   136                  40,800    
Adani Ports      100                   182                   18,200 
Cash                                                                      33,337
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
Total                                                                    2,14,329

****************************
Update as on 21st April 2016
****************************
## Sold Hindalco 300 shares at 104 realizing gains of Rs.9000 (40%+ gain in 5 months)
## Cash position increased to Rs. 49537
## Net Portfolio stands increased by 9000 to Rs. 2,10,727

Net Portfolio as on 21st April 2016 stands as below:


Stock                  Qty                    Avg. Price      Investment
----------------------------------------------------------------
Cairn                  350                   206.55            72,292
Bharti Airtel     50                     348                  17,400
R Capital           30                     460                  13,800
Exide                 100                    185                  18,500
BOI                    200                   162                  32,400    
JK Paper           200                   34                      6,800 
Cash                                                                      49,537
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
Total                                                                    2,10,729

*******************************
Update as on 21st March 2016
*******************************


****************************
Update as on 12th Jan 2016
****************************
## Sold Sun Pharma 35 shares at 791 realizing gains of Rs.2590
## Bought bank of India 100 shares at Rs. 104 bringing the average cost of holding of 200 shares down to Rs. 162 
## Cash position increased to Rs. 18337

Net Portfolio as on 12th Jan 2016 stands as below:


Stock                  Qty                    Avg. Price      Investment
----------------------------------------------------------------
Cairn                  350                   206.55            72,292
Bharti Airtel     50                     348                  17,400
R Capital           30                     460                  13,800
Exide                 100                    185                  18,500
BOI                    200                   162                  32,400    
JK Paper           200                   34                      6,800 
Hindalco          300                   74                     22,200
Cash                                                                      18,337
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
Total                                                                    2,01,729

****************************
Update as on 23rd Nov 2015
****************************
## Bought Sun Pharma 35 shares at 717  worth ==> Rs. 25,095
## Bought Hindalco Industries 300 shares at 74 worth ==> Rs. 22,200
## Sold Reliance Capital 10 Shares at 410 worth ==> Rs.4,100 (Incurring a loss of Rs. 500)

Net Portfolio as on 23rd Nov 2015 stands as below:


Stock                  Qty                    Avg. Price      Investment
----------------------------------------------------------------
Cairn                  350                   206.55            72,292
Bharti Airtel     50                     348                  17,400
R Capital           30                     460                  13,800
Exide                 100                    185                  18,500
BOI                    100                    220                 22,000    
JK Paper           200                   34                      6,800 
Sun Pharma     35                      717                   25,095
Hindalco          300                   74                     22,200
Cash                                                                         1,052
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
Total                                                                    1,99,139

****************************
Update as on 19th Oct 2015
****************************
## Due to massive short covering and more than 35% appreciation in 2 weeks, Tata Motors is expected to stay sideways. Hence sold all the shares for the time being. Rcom is expected to report average set of numbers hence booking profit in that scrip as well.

## Sold Tata Motors 62 shares at 383 thereby generating a profit of around Rs.5000
## Sold Rcom 250 shares at 82 giving the portfolio a gain of 2500 bucks.


Net Portfolio as on 19th Oct stands as below:

Stock                  Qty                    Avg. Price      Investment
----------------------------------------------------------------
Cairn                  350                   206.55            72,292
Bharti Airtel     50                     348                  17,400
R Capital           40                     460                  18,400
Exide                 100                    185                  18,500
BOI                    100                    220                 22,000    
JK Paper           200                   34                    6,800 
Cash                                                                      44,247
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
Total                                                                    1,99,639


****************************
Update as on 24th Sep 2015
****************************
## Swift market correction and FII's relentless selling of companies doing badly in operational performance in-spite of highly compelling valuations has led to significant price damage in some of the stocks of our portfolio.

## Done a bit of reshuffling in the portfolio to adjust some concentration risk and also to utilize significant value emerging in Tata Motors.

## Sold 80 shares of Cairn India at Rs. 150 incurring a loss of Rs. 4524 (releasing Rs.12000 cash)
## Sold 50 Rcom at Rs. 64.5 incurring a loss of Rs. 375 (releasing Rs.3225 cash)
## Sold Reliance Capital 10 shares at 354 incurring a loss of Rs. 1060 (releasing Rs.3540 cash)
## Bought Tata Motors 62 shares at Rs. 303 with the cash released from above shares.

Net Portfolio as on 24th Sep stands as below:

Stock                  Qty                    Avg. Price      Investment
----------------------------------------------------------------
Cairn                  350                   206.55            72,292
Bharti Airtel     50                     348                  17,400
Rcom                 250                   72                    18,000
R Capital           40                     460                  18,400
Exide                 100                    185                  18,500
BOI                    100                    220                 22,000    
JK Paper           200                   34                      6,800 
Tata Motors        62                   302.65            18,765
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
Total                                                                    1,92,157

Note the portfolio is reduce to Rs 1,92,157 from Rs. 1,98,120 last reported due to cumulative losses (Rs. 5959) taken (as shown above) to accommodate Tata Motors in the portfolio.

****************************
Update as on 9th June 2015
****************************
## Sold ONGC 100 shares at 303 (at loss) to acquire additional 180 shares in Cairn India at 172 (for 30960) as the stock has become very attractive due to panic selling. Also not to over allocate to a particular sector, ONGC is being replaced with Cairn India.

## Net holding in Cairn India stands at 430 shares at avg price of 206.5

Net portfolio as on 9th June 2015:

Stock                  Qty                    Avg. Price      Investment
----------------------------------------------------------------
Cairn                  430                   206.55            88,820
Bharti Airtel     50                     348                  17,400
Rcom                 300                   72                    21,600
R Capital           50                     460                  23,000
Exide                 100                    185                  18,500
BOI                    100                    220                 22,000    
JK Paper           200                    34                     6,800 
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
Total                                                                    1,98,120

Note: The portfolio value at cash is reduced by 4700 bucks due to loss taken on ONGC for buying the Cairn India shares.

****************************
Update as on 25th May 2015
****************************
## Bought additional Cairn India 130 shares at 195 bringing down the average cost of holding for 250 shares to approx. Rs. 231.5. Cairn India has declared a dividend of 4 bucks per share to be ex-div on 8th July 2015.

## Net residual cash after the above purchase remains at 650 bucks.


****************************
Update as on 21st March 2015
****************************


Detailed Annual Performance Review of Model Portfolio Vs Nifty


****************************
Update as on 12th March 2015
****************************

Booking profits in NTPC & Tata Global and allocating some additional cash to stock.

## Sold NTPC 100 shares at 160 thereby booking gain of Rs.2000

## Sold Tata Global 100 shares at 160 thereby booking gain of Rs.500

## Bought ONGC  additional 50 shares at 308 ==>  Rs. 15400 (Avg cost of 100 shares now 350 bucks)

## Bought Bank of India 100 shares at 220 ==> Rs. 22000

## Bought JK Paper 200 shares @ 34 ==> Rs.6800

TOTAL PORTFOLIO at COST INCREASED by RS. 2500 TO RS. 2,02,820

Net portfolio as on 12th March 2015:

Stock                  Qty                    Avg. Price      Investment
----------------------------------------------------------------
Cairn                  120                    271                  32,520
ONGC                100                    350                 35,000
Bharti Airtel     50                     348                  17,400
Rcom                 300                   72                    21,600
R Capital           50                     460                  23,000
Exide                 100                    185                  18,500
BOI                    100                    220                 22,000    
JK Paper           200                    34                     6,800 
Cash                                                                      26,000
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
Total                                                                    2,02,820

*Note: The new scrips added in the portfolio above is highlighted in yellow shades.

****************************
Update as on 6th Feb 2015
****************************
Utilizing the opportunity to accumulate stocks that have come down sharply and trading at attractive valuations.

## Bought RCom 300 Shares @ 72 ==> Rs. 21600

## Sold Idea Cellular 100 shares @ 155 thereby booking gain of Rs.1500. (Basically the stock is replaced by Rcom as it is relatively more attractively priced and is least impacted by the upcoming auction.)

## Sold HCL Tech 20 shares at 1960 thereby booking gains of Rs. 9500 (massive gain of 32% in 1.5 months)

## Bought Reliance Capital 50 shares at 460 ==>  Rs. 23000

## Bought Exide Industries 100 shares at 185 ==> Rs. 18500

## Bought NTPC 100 shares @ 140 ==> Rs.14000

TOTAL PORTFOLIO at COST INCREASED by RS. 11000 TO RS. 2,00,320

Net portfolio as on 6th Feb 2015:

Stock                  Qty                    Avg. Price      Investment
----------------------------------------------------------------
Cairn                  120                    271                  32,520
Tata Global       100                    155                  15,500
ONGC                50                      392                 19,600
Bharti Airtel     50                     348                  17,400
Rcom                 300                   72                    21,600
R Capital           50                     460                  23,000
Exide                 100                    185                  18,500
NTPC                 100                    140                 14,000    
Cash                                                                      38,200
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
Total                                                                    2,00,320

Note: The new scrips added in the portfolio above is highlighted in yellow shades.

****************************
Update as on 15th Dec 2014
****************************
Market has witnessed 5% correction from the top and some stocks have been battered significantly. Utilizing this opportunity to nibble some quality names.

Bought Cairn India 60 shares at 240.5 ==> Rs.14,430 (averaging the cost of existing shares by half)
Bought Idea Cellular 100 shares at 140 ==> Rs. 14,000
Bought HCL Tech 20 shares at 1485 ==> Rs. 29,700
Bought Bharti Airtel 50 shares at 348 ==> Rs.17,400

Net portfolio as on 15th Dec 2014:

Stock                  Qty                    Avg. Price      Investment
----------------------------------------------------------------
Cairn                  120                    271                  32,520
Tata Global       100                    155                  15,500
ONGC                50                      392                 19,600
Idea Cellular     100                   140                  14,000
HCL tech            20                     1485               29,700
Bharti Airtel       50                     348                 17,400
Cash                                                                      60,600
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
Total                                                                    1,89,320

****************************
Update as on 18th Nov 2014
****************************
Profit booking in some of the stocks that witnessed sharp run-up in prices.

Sold Reliance Capital 60 shares at 521 resulting in gain of Rs.3600
Sold Rcom 200 shares at 113 resulting in gain of Rs.3400
Sold ITC 50 shares at 368 resulting in gain of Rs.1000
Sold Bank Of India 80 shares at 290 resulting in gain of Rs.4000
Sold NTPC 100 shares at 146 resulting in gain of Rs.1000
Bought ONGC 50 shares at 392 ==> Rs.19600

Net gain from portfolio selling shares = Rs.13000

Net portfolio as on 18th Nov 2014:

Stock                  Qty                    Avg. Price      Investment
----------------------------------------------------------------
Cairn                  60                       301.5             18,090
Tata Global       100                    155                  15,500
ONGC                50                      392                 19,600
Cash                                                                      136,310
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
Total                                                                    1,89,320

Note: Due to the market being overbought and global situation appearing a bit jittery, keeping a large portion of portfolio in cash (~70%) to be deployed on correction.

****************************
Update as on 14th Oct 2014
****************************
Utilizing sharp appreciation in some stocks of the portfolio.

Sold SAIL 400 at 77 resulting in gain of Rs.3600 (around 13% in 15 days)
Sold Spice Jet 1000 shares at 15.3 resulting in gain of Rs. 2500 (around 20% gain in 6 days)

Bought 50 ITC at 348 ==> Rs. 17400

Net portfolio as on 14th oct 2014:

Stock                  Qty                    Avg. Price      Investment
----------------------------------------------------------------
Cairn                  60                       301.5             18,090
Rel Capital        60                       461                27,600
Rcom                  200                    96                  19,200
Bank India         80                      250                20,000
NTPC                  100                    136                 13,600
Tata Global        100                    155                 15,500
ITC                      50                      348                17,400
Cash                                                                      44,930
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
Total                                                                    1,76,320

****************************
Update as on 7th Oct 2014
****************************
Utilizing further correction in select stocks in deploying residual cash in portfolio.

Bought 1000 shares of Spice Jet at 12.80 ==> Rs. 12800
Bought Cairn India 30 shares at 293 ==> Rs. 8790 (averaging the cost per share to 301.5)
Reliance Capital 20 shares at 443 ==> Rs. 8860 (averaging the cost per share to 461)


Net portfolio as on 7th oct 2014:

Stock                  Qty                    Avg. Price      Investment
----------------------------------------------------------------
SAIL                   400                    68                   27,200
Cairn                  60                       301.5              18,090
Rel Capital        60                       461                27,600
Rcom                  200                    96                  19,200
Bank India         80                      250                20,000
NTPC                  100                    136                 13,600
Tata Global        100                    155                 15,500
Spicejet              1000                  12.8                12,800
Cash                                                                      16,170
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
Total                                                                    1,70,220



****************************
Update as on 25th Sep 2014
****************************
Market presented excellent opportunity to buy some some stocks at attractive valuations. Following are the stocks which were added to the portfolio today.

SAIL 400 @ 68  ==> Rs. 27,200 
Cairn India 30 @ 310  ==> Rs. 9300
Reliance Capital 40 @ 470 ==> Rs. 18800
RCom 200 @ 96 ==> Rs. 19200
Bank Of India 80 @ 250 ==> 20000
NTPC 100 @ 136  ==> Rs.13,600

Net portfolio as on 25th Sep 2014:

Stock                  Qty                    Price               Investment
----------------------------------------------------------------
SAIL                   400                    68                   27,200
Cairn                  30                       310                 9,300
Rel Capital        40                       470                18,800
Rcom                  200                    96                  19,200
Bank India         80                      250                20,000
NTPC                  100                    136                 13,600
Tata Global        100                    155                 15,500
Cash                                                                      46,620
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
Total                                                                    1,70,220


****************************
Update as on 2nd Sep 2014
****************************

Sold Cairn India 100 shares at 335 yielding a profit of Rs.2300
Sold M&M Fin 100 shares at 282 yielding a profit of Rs.4400

Bought Tata Global 100 shares @ 155 with an investment of Rs. 15500

So portfolio as on 2nd Sep stands as:

Tata Global 100 shares -> 15,500
Cash -> 1,08,520 (Cash as on 25th July) + 61,700 (Cash from selling above stocks) - 15,500 (Cash utilized in buying fresh stock)= Rs. 1,54,720

Total Portfolio value including Cash and stocks at cost = Rs.1,70,220

****************************
Update as on 25th July 2014
****************************

Utilizing the sharp fall in Cairn India and M&M Financial Services as they represent reasonable value at price points of 312 and 238 respectively

  • Cairn India 100 @ 312 resulting in a investment of Rs. 31,200
  • M&M Financial Services 100 @ 238 with an investment of Rs. 23800
  • Cash -> Rs. 1,08,520

****************************
Update as on 23rd July 2014
****************************

Sold residual stocks (idea and IDFC) in the portfolio at profits leading to a 100% cash position to be deployed on weakness as and when it occurs.
  • Idea Cellular sold 150 shares at 147 thereby generating profit of Rs. 450
  • IDFC sold 100 shares at 160 thereby generating a profit of Rs. 2700
Total profits from the selling of above shares = Rs. 3,150

Updated Portfolio as on 23rd July 2014

Cash --> Rs. 1,63,520 (* Started this portfolio on 21st March 2013 with Rs. 1,00,000. Checkout the bottom of this page for datewise buy and sell in the portfolio).


****************************
Update as on 5th June 2014
****************************

Booking profits in stocks with good profits as the market is increasingly getting over stretched.
  • PSB sold 300 shares at 80.50 thereby generating profit of Rs. 10,050 (Jackpot 71% return)
  • M&M Fin sold 50 shares at 315 thereby generating a profit of Rs. 3450
  • Dish TV sold 300 shares at 55 thereby generating a profit of Rs. 3000
  • NTPC sold 100 shares at 164 thereby generating a profit of Rs. 4100
  • Castrol sold 40 shares at 313 thereby generating a profit of Rs. 800
  • Indian Hotels sold 150 shares at 95 thereby generating a profit of Rs. 3450

Total profits from the selling of above shares = Rs. 24,850

Updated Portfolio as on 5th June 2014

Idea Cellular 150 shares at 144  --> Rs. 21,600
IDFC 100 shares at 133  --> Rs. 13,300
Cash --> Rs. 1,25,470

Total Portfolio value at cost = Rs. 1,60,370 (Up > 60% since 21st March 2013)


****************************
Update as on 13th May 2014
****************************

With exit polls out and most of them pointing towards stable NDA govt at the center, picking on some stocks which could participate in the post poll rally and are at the same time trading at reasonable valuations so that in case something goes wrong in next couple of months there is no major dent in the prices of such stocks.

  • Punjab Sind Bank (PSB) 300 @ 47 resulting in a investment of Rs. 14100
  • M&M Financial Services 50 @ 246 with an investment of Rs. 12300
  • Dish TV 300 @ 45 with an investment of Rs. 13500
  • Castrol India 40 shares @ 293, invstmt = Rs. 11720
  • Indian Hotels 150 shares @ 72, invstmnt = Rs. 10800
  • Cash = Rs. 25,900
Updated portfolio as on 13th May 2014 is as follows:

Amit Agarwal's Model Portfolio ( As on 13th May 2014 )
Company
Qty
Purchase Price
Purchase Value
Idea Cellular
150
144
21,600
IDFC
100
133
13,300
PSB
300
47
14,100
M&Mfin
50
246
12,300
Dish TV
300
45
13,500
Indian Hotels
150
72
10,800
NTPC
100
123
12,300
Castrol
40
293
11,720
Cash


25,900
Total
135,520


****************************
Update as on 27th March 2014
****************************

Utilizing the sharp appreciation in market to encash some of the holdings of the portfolio:

Sold Bharti Airtel 30 shares @ 310 thereby generating a profit of Rs.750
Sold Union Bank 100 shares @ 122 thereby generating a profit of Rs.1200
Sold Dish TV 200 shares @ 52 thereby generating a profit of Rs.600
Sold Bajaj-Auto 8 shares at 2070 thereby generating a profit of Rs. 1320

As on 27th March 2014 day end the model portfolio had following stocks and cash:

Idea Cellular 150 @ 144  -> 21600
IDFC 100 @ 133               -> 13300
Cash = 52160 (Cash as on 21st march 2014) + 48460 (cash due to selling of above stocks)    
->  100620

Net portfolio value at cost   -> Rs. 135520

15 Stock Investment Tips from Rakesh Jhunjhunwala

1. Always go against tide. Buy when others are selling and sell when others are buying.  2. If you believe in the growth prospects o...