Wednesday, May 28, 2025

Insider Trades in Indusind Bank

The Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi) has barred former IndusInd Bank CEO Sumant Kathpalia and four other senior officials from trading in the securities market, following allegations of insider trading linked to a massive accounting discrepancy.

 
In an order issued on 28th May 2025, Sebi said that these individuals had traded in IndusInd Bank shares while being in possession of unpublished price sensitive information (UPSI), violating insider trading rules.
 
The other executives named in the order are Arun Khurana (former Executive Director and Deputy CEO), Sushant Sourav (Head of Treasury Operations), Rohan Jathanna (Head of GMG Operations), and Anil Marco Rao (Chief Administrative Officer – Consumer Banking Operations).

ABFRL Demerger Details

 Aditya Birla Fashion and Retail Ltd (ABFRL) has successfully demerged its Madura Fashion & Lifestyle (MFL) division into a new, separately listed entity named Aditya Birla Lifestyle Brands Ltd (ABLBL). This strategic move aims to unlock value by allowing each business to pursue tailored growth strategies and optimize capital structures.


📊 Financial Overview (FY23)

Tuesday, May 27, 2025

Microfinance Stress Zooms in FY- 2025

  • Delinquent Loans (PAR 31+ Days):
    📈 ₹43,075 crore – up 163% from ₹16,379 crore in FY2024.

  • Gross Loan Portfolio (GLP):
    📉 Declined 13.9% to ₹3.81 lakh crore, from ₹4.43 lakh crore in FY2024.

  • PAR 31–180 Days:
    ⬆️ Rose to 6.2% (from 2.1%).

  • PAR >180 Days:
    ⬆️ Increased to 5.1% (from 1.6%).

  • 90+ Days Past Due (DPD):
    ⬆️ More than doubled to 6.0%, from 2.4% a year earlier.

Thursday, May 22, 2025

Kitchen Sink Accounting by Large Indian Banks - History

The term "kitchen sink" in the context of corporate earnings refers to a strategy where a company takes significant one-time charges, write-offs, or provisions in a single quarter to clean up its balance sheet, often to address accumulated issues and set a lower base for future performance. IndusInd Bank's Q4 FY25 results, announced on May 21, 2025, are a recent example, with a reported net loss of ₹2,328.92 crore, driven by ₹1,979 crore in derivative losses, ₹674 crore in overstated interest income, and microfinance portfolio stress.

Historical Examples of "Kitchen Sink" Accounting by Large Indian Banks

Tuesday, May 20, 2025

Probability - Quick Intro

 ðŸ§  What is Probability?

Probability is the likelihood or chance that a certain event will happen.

Saturday, May 10, 2025

AI-Proof Trading Strategy Checklist for Experienced Investors

While AI can excel at pattern recognition and data analysis, experienced human traders have unique advantages that can outperform AI in specific market conditions. This checklist is designed to help you identify and exploit these edge cases effectively.

Sunday, May 4, 2025

Why Banks Deserve Premium Valuations Over NBFCs: A Case for IndusInd Bank vs Shriram Finance

The Indian financial sector is broadly divided into two key segments: banks and non-banking financial companies (NBFCs). While both play critical roles in credit delivery and financial intermediation, their business models, risk profiles, and income generation capacities differ significantly. These differences translate into varied valuation levels in the stock market.

Tuesday, April 29, 2025

History Repeating at Indusind Bank

There is an interesting parallel between IndusInd Bank's current situation and Axis Bank's 2018 episode—both involve:

  • A regulator-triggered disruption (Axis: NPA divergence, IndusInd: derivative accounting issues).

  • CEO's tenure cut short or not extended (Shikha Sharma denied extension; Sumant Kathpalia exiting before term completion as on 29th april 2025).

  • A committee of executives managing operations temporarily.

Let’s break this down:

Wednesday, April 23, 2025

Great Businesses ≠ Great Investments

 “The best business at the wrong price is a bad investment.” - Warren Buffett

The 1970s "Nifty Fifty" episode is one of the most important and misunderstood lessons in market history, and Howard Marks often refers to it to illustrate the dangers of overpaying, regardless of business quality.

🧠 What Was the Nifty Fifty?

Thursday, April 10, 2025

Enantiodromia and the Indian Tea Sector: A Brewing Comeback

In the rhythms of history and markets, there’s a fascinating Greek term that captures the essence of dramatic turnarounds: enantiodromia. Coined by the philosopher Heraclitus and popularized by Carl Jung, enantiodromia means that anything that reaches an extreme will eventually turn into its opposite. In simple terms, when a system goes too far in one direction, it corrects by swinging back the other way. And nowhere is this psychological and philosophical concept more relevant today than in the Indian tea industry.

Thursday, April 3, 2025

What Happened During Tulip Mania?

Tulip Mania is one of the most famous speculative bubbles in history. It took place in the Dutch Republic (now the Netherlands) in the early 17th century, reaching its peak in 1636-1637 before crashing dramatically.

Timeline of Tulip Mania:

Railway Mania (1840s) vs. Dot-Com Bubble (1999-2000) – A Detailed Comparison

 Both Railway Mania and the Dot-Com Bubble were driven by revolutionary technologies that changed the world. However, they also saw massive speculation, unrealistic valuations, and an eventual crash. Let's break them down across multiple parameters:


1. The Core Technology Behind the Boom

ParameterRailway Mania (1840s)Dot-Com Bubble (1999-2000)
Main Tech RevolutionRailways, steam locomotives, and faster transportation networks.The Internet, digital connectivity, and online businesses.
Core Value PropositionFaster movement of goods and people, reducing travel time by 90%.Instant access to information, digital commerce, and global connectivity.
Actual ImpactRailways reshaped economies and made industrialization much faster.The Internet changed communication, shopping, finance, and business forever.

Monday, March 31, 2025

Investment Thesis: Goodricke Group Ltd. - A High-Conviction Bet on the Indian Tea Sector Turnaround

Investment Rationale

The Indian tea sector is at an inflection point after a decade-long downturn. Government interventions, supply constraints, and rising domestic demand indicate that the cycle is turning. Goodricke Group Ltd., backed by the multinational Camellia Plc, stands out as one of the few well-managed, high-quality tea producers in India. With a strong balance sheet, premium tea gardens, and high promoter holding (74%), Goodricke presents a compelling investment case for significant capital appreciation.

Hinduja Group's Ashok Leyland Share Pledge - A strategic move?

The Hinduja Group has pledged around 30 crore shares of Ashok Leyland (mkt cap ~ 60k crores), the group's flagship company in India. The pledge was created through Hinduja Automotive, a UK-based holding company and a key part of the Hinduja Group, which serves as the primary vehicle through which the Hinduja family holds its stake in Ashok Leyland.

As of 31 December 2024, promoters held 51.10% stake in Ashok Leyland. Hinduja Automotive held 34.72%.

Sunday, March 30, 2025

Uncertainty Vs. Risk

Investing is often seen as a game of numbers, but it is just as much a game of psychology. One of the biggest lessons that long-term investors learn is that 
markets tend to overreact to uncertainty rather than to actual risk. This distinction is critical because uncertainty creates opportunities for those who can see beyond short-term noise and focus on long-term value.

Understanding the Difference Between Risk and Uncertainty

  • Risk is measurable; it can be quantified and hedged against. For example, if a company operates in a cyclical industry, investors can analyze past cycles to gauge the extent of earnings volatility.


  • Uncertainty, on the other hand, is when there isn’t enough information to make a precise assessment. It causes markets to react with fear, often leading to excessive pessimism.

Investors who can differentiate between the two and take advantage of overreactions to uncertainty often unlock massive wealth creation opportunities.

Wednesday, March 26, 2025

What made IndusInd bank a great franchise? Is that franchise lost?

IndusInd Bank has historically been admired in the banking industry for several reasons, making it one of the standout franchises in Indian banking. Here’s why it earned that reputation:

1. Strong Leadership & Execution:

  • The bank was transformed under Romesh Sobti’s leadership (2008-2020), who built a high-growth, high-profitability banking model.
  • Sobti and his team (ex-ABN AMRO executives) focused on risk-adjusted lending, superior underwriting, and niche market dominance.

Divi’s Lab (2017) vs. IndusInd Bank (2024): Similar Setback-Recovery Pattern?

  1. Big Shock Event:

    • Divi’s Lab → USFDA import alert (key revenue source hit) → Stock crashed 20%+ in a day
    • IndusInd Bank → Derivative loss + market panic → Stock fell 30%+ in a few days
  2. Underlying Business Strength:

    • Divi’s had a strong API business, industry leadership, and good financials, despite the short-term issue.
    • IndusInd has high CASA, strong retail franchise, and well-managed asset quality (unlike Yes Bank/RBL Bank).

Tuesday, March 25, 2025

Business Turnaround vs Sentiment Turnaround

One strategy that many investors deploy is betting on turnarounds including myself and I am always on the lookout for a turnaround as that creates maximum wealth in the shortest period of time. 

Now what I have experienced is that there are two types of turnarounds:

1. Business Turnaround

2. Sentiment Turnaround

Sunday, March 23, 2025

Has Jane street gone away? Lets find out

 Let’s dive into how large institutions with deep pockets—like hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, or FPIs—exploited the earlier, looser position limit rules for index derivatives in India to generate profits or influence intraday volatility, and why the new maximum position limits (effective 2025) deter such strategies.

How Institutions Took Advantage Under Earlier Rules (Pre-November 2024)

Saturday, March 22, 2025

Is Indian Tea Industry Dynamics changing for good?

 In 2012, large tea estates were the primary producers of tea in India, contributing approximately 75% of the total tea production, while small tea growers (STGs) accounted for about 25%. It is 45% now and 55% is ontributed by STG as on 2023 production data.

the growing dominance of small tea growers (STGs) over large estates is a major reason for the dire state of the Indian tea industry. Here’s why:

What is the capital adequacy or equivalent of US banks. Are they lower than Indian banks?

 Yes, large U.S. banks generally have lower Capital Adequacy Ratios (CAR) compared to Indian banks. Let’s break it down:


1. Capital Adequacy Ratio (CAR) - India vs. U.S. Banks

Thursday, March 20, 2025

Why RBL Bank Valuation derated in 2019

 RBL Bank's stock collapsed massively between July 2019 and September 2019 due to a combination of corporate governance concerns, asset quality fears, and broader market panic. Here’s a detailed breakdown of what triggered the sharp fall:


1. Rising Concerns Over Corporate Governance

  • July 2019: There were rumors of governance issues, but the bank denied them.
  • August 2019: Vishwavir Ahuja (CEO) sold a significant portion of his RBL Bank shares, raising investor concerns.
    • He later clarified that the sale was to cover tax liabilities, but the damage was done.
    • The market interpreted this as a lack of confidence in the bank's future.
  • This came right after Yes Bank’s crisis, making investors more nervous about mid-sized private banks.

👉 Impact: The stock began correcting as governance fears emerged.

Why Turkey is weaker than Indian inspite of higher GDP per capita

 As of 2023, Turkey's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita is approximately $14,713.57 in current U.S. dollars.

Over the past decade, Turkey's GDP per capita has experienced fluctuations due to various economic factors. Here's a summary of the recent trends:

  • 2020: $8,639
  • 2021: $9,743 (12.79% increase)
  • 2022: $10,675 (9.56% increase)
  • 2023: $12,986 (21.65% increase)

Wednesday, March 19, 2025

What Happens in the First 30 Days After a Scandal or Crisis?

 When a major crisis breaks out for a bank or financial institution, the stock tends to follow a typical pattern in the first 30 days. Below is a summary based on historical cases:


📉 1. Immediate Crash (Days 1-5)

  • Stock falls sharply (typically 10-30% in the first few days).
  • Investors panic due to uncertainty and liquidity rushes out of the stock.
  • Negative news headlines dominate media coverage, amplifying fear.
  • Short sellers take aggressive positions.

Example:

  • Wells Fargo (2016): Fell ~10% in 3 days after the fake accounts scandal.
  • IndusInd Bank (2024): Already fell ~15-20% in a few days after the derivative issue came out.

Past Banking Crisis and recovery time

 1. For a 40% move from the bottom:

Based on historical banking scandals and recoveries, the average time required for a 40% rise from the low is approximately 235 days (~8 months).

Breakdown of Recovery Times:

  • Wells Fargo (2016): ~180 days (~6 months)
  • American Express (1963): ~365 days (~1 year)
  • JP Morgan (2012): ~150 days (~5 months)
  • Axis Bank (2017): ~210 days (~7 months)
  • ICICI Bank (2018, Chanda Kochhar Issue): ~270 days (~9 months)

London Whale trading scandal at JPMorgan Chase in 2012

 What Happened?

  • A trader named Bruno Iksil, based in JPMorgan’s London office, was part of the bank’s Chief Investment Office (CIO).
  • The CIO was supposed to hedge the bank’s risks but ended up making huge speculative bets on credit default swaps (CDS).
  • Iksil took such large positions in the derivatives market that other traders began calling him the "London Whale" due to the sheer size of his trades.
  • These trades backfired, leading to $6.2 billion in losses for JPMorgan.

Tuesday, March 18, 2025

The 2016 Wells Fargo Scandal – Fake Accounts Controversy

 In 2016, Wells Fargo (WFC) faced one of the biggest banking scandals in U.S. history, leading to a 20% stock price decline and severe reputational damage.

🔎 What Happened?

  • Fraudulent Accounts Scandal: Employees opened millions of fake bank and credit card accounts without customer consent to meet aggressive sales targets.
  • Unrealistic Cross-Selling Goals: The bank pushed employees to sell multiple products per customer (e.g., savings, credit cards, loans). This led to unethical practices where employees created unauthorized accounts.
  • Pressure from Top Management: Employees were threatened with job loss if they failed to meet high sales quotas.

Monday, March 17, 2025

Warren Buffett’s Investment in Commonwealth Trust Company - Analysis

Warren Buffett’s investment in Commonwealth Trust Company is one of his lesser-known but highly profitable early deals. It showcases his deep value investing approach—buying a strong but undervalued business at a time when others ignored it.


1. Background of the Investment

  • Commonwealth Trust Company was a small bank based in Pennsylvania.
  • It was a highly conservative, well-run bank with strong assets and a history of stable performance.
  • The bank had no major problems, but it was being overlooked by the market at the time.

Sunday, March 16, 2025

What went wrong in axis bank in 2017

 In 2017, Axis Bank faced multiple challenges that affected its performance and reputation. Here are some key issues that emerged during that period:

1. Rising Non-Performing Assets (NPAs):

  • The bank reported a sharp increase in NPAs, leading to concerns over asset quality.
  • Gross NPAs surged from 5.22% in March 2017 to 5.99% in September 2017, reflecting stress in corporate loans.
  • The bank had significant exposure to large stressed corporate accounts that turned bad.

what kind of frauds were detected in Yes bank from 2017 - 2020?

Between 2017 and 2020, Yes Bank was embroiled in several fraudulent activities and governance lapses that significantly impacted its financial health. Key issues identified during this period include:

  1. Underreporting of Non-Performing Assets (NPAs): The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) discovered that Yes Bank had significantly underreported its NPAs. In 2017, the bank's actual bad loans were found to be five times higher than what was disclosed to the government.

Saturday, March 15, 2025

Why Indusind Bank commanded high valuation before 2018 but low now?

Before 2018, IndusInd Bank consistently traded at a premium valuation compared to most other banking stocks in India. Here’s why investors assigned a higher Price-to-Book (P/B) and Price-to-Earnings (P/E) multiple to the bank:


1. Strong Loan Growth & Superior Profitability

  • Loan book growth: IndusInd Bank delivered industry-leading loan growth (~25-30% CAGR) in the years leading up to 2018, much faster than peers like ICICI Bank and Axis Bank.
  • Higher ROE & ROA:
    • Return on Equity (ROE): Consistently around 15-18%, significantly higher than many PSU and even some private banks.
    • Return on Assets (ROA): Above 1.5%, a benchmark of high profitability in banking.

How Arbitrage funds manage sudden restrictions on derivative trading in a stock

 If derivative positions are restricted for a month in a stock, arbitrage funds that depend on taking counter positions in the cash and derivatives market will face significant challenges. Here’s what could happen:

1. Arbitrage Opportunities Vanish

  • Arbitrage funds rely on price differences between the cash market (spot price) and the futures market.
  • If derivatives trading is restricted, there will be no futures market to hedge positions, making it impossible for arbitrage funds to execute their usual strategies.

Charlie Munger's Wells Fargo Investment in 2008 crisis

 During the 2008 financial crisis, Wells Fargo's stock price experienced significant fluctuations:

  • 52-Week High: Approximately $38.90 per share.
  • 52-Week Low: Approximately $7.80 per share.

Charlie Munger, serving as chairman of the Daily Journal Corporation, made a strategic investment in Wells Fargo during this tumultuous period:

  • Investment Amount: Approximately $20 million, sourced from Treasury bonds.
  • Acquisition Price: Shares were purchased at around $7 per share, totaling just under 1.6 million shares.

The Salad Oil Crisis & American Express (1963)

 The Salad Oil Crisis was a major financial scandal that hit American Express (AmEx) in 1963. It was caused by Anthony "Tino" De Angelis, a commodities trader who ran Allied Crude Vegetable Oil Company. He took massive loans using falsified collateral—tanks supposedly filled with soybean oil that actually contained mostly water.

Since American Express was heavily involved in warehousing and certifying collateral for loans, they were directly implicated when the fraud was uncovered. The company faced huge liabilities and its reputation was severely damaged.

Friday, March 14, 2025

ICICI Bank faced similar crisis during 2015 to 2017 period

 ICICI Bank faced several controversies and adverse news reports between 2015 and 2017. Here are some of the biggest issues:

1. Videocon Loan Controversy (2016-2018)

  • One of the most significant scandals that surfaced was related to a conflict of interest in loans extended to the Videocon Group.
  • It was alleged that ICICI Bank, under then-CEO Chanda Kochhar, sanctioned ₹3,250 crore in loans to Videocon Group.
  • Later, a company linked to her husband, Deepak Kochhar’s NuPower Renewables, received investments from Videocon’s chairman Venugopal Dhoot.
  • This raised allegations of quid pro quo, misuse of power, and lack of transparency.
  • Eventually, this controversy led to Chanda Kochhar stepping down in 2018.

Wednesday, March 12, 2025

How RBI’s Ban on Internal Trades Affects Indian Banks

How RBI’s Ban on Internal Trades Affects Indian vs. Foreign Banks (Like HSBC)

RBI’s September 2023 directive prevents banks in India from using internal trades for currency and interest rate risk management. Instead, they must use external market instruments for hedging. However, this rule impacts Indian banks and foreign banks (like HSBC) operating in India differently.


🔵 Impact on Indian Banks (SBI, HDFC, ICICI, etc.)

Saturday, March 1, 2025

Longevity diet plan

 ðŸ”¹ Updated Longevity Diet Plan (with Morbon XT & Vitamin C included)

Saturday, January 21, 2023

How to beat Trading Algorithms

In USA over 80% while in India over 50% of trades are executed by trading algorithms. Beating trading algorithms, also known as algos, can be challenging, as these computer programs are designed to execute trades based on a set of pre-determined rules and conditions, and they can execute trades faster and more efficiently than humans. However, there are a few strategies that traders and investors can use to try to gain an edge over algos:

Use fundamental analysis: Algos are typically based on technical analysis, so focusing on fundamental analysis and understanding the underlying value of a security can provide a different perspective that algos may not be able to replicate.

Use market knowledge: Algos cannot account for market nuances such as emotions, politics and other market factors that may affect the market. By keeping informed on market events and understanding how they may affect the market, traders can gain an edge over algos.

Use diverse data sets: Algos may only use a specific set of data, so by using a diverse set of data, such as alternative data, traders can gain insights that algos may not be able to replicate.

Be flexible: Algos are based on a set of pre-determined rules, so they may not be able to adapt to unexpected market conditions. By being flexible and willing to adjust strategies as needed, traders can gain an edge over algos.

Trade less liquid markets: Algos tend to focus on highly liquid markets, so by trading in less liquid markets, traders can gain an edge over algos.

It's important to keep in mind that these strategies are not guaranteed to be successful, and that the performance of algos can be influenced by a variety of factors such as market conditions, the quality of data, and the design of the algorithm. Additionally, it's important to keep in mind that beating algos is not the only goal, it's important to focus on creating a profitable strategy.

Limitations of Trading Algos: Trading algorithms are designed to automatically execute trades based on a set of pre-determined rules and conditions. While algos can provide many benefits, such as executing trades faster and more efficiently than humans, they also have certain limitations. Here are a few examples:

Lack of human judgement: Algos do not have the ability to exercise human judgement or interpret market conditions in the same way that a human trader might. This can lead to missed opportunities or mistakes.

Complexity: Some algos can be very complex, and require a high level of expertise to design, test, and implement. This can limit their accessibility to traders and investors.

Data dependency: Algos rely on accurate and up-to-date data to function properly, so if the data is inaccurate or not current, the algorithm may make incorrect decisions.

Lack of flexibility: Algos are based on a set of pre-determined rules and conditions, so they may not be able to adapt to unexpected market conditions or changes.

Limited decision making: Algos can only make decisions based on the information and rules programmed into them, so it may not take into account other important factors such as emotions, politics and other market nuances.

Risk of over-fitting: Algos can be over-fitted to the historical data, which means they may not work well in real-world situations and may lead to poor performance.

Lack of transparency: Some algos can be proprietary and not transparent, which makes it difficult to understand how they make decisions and evaluate their performance.


Common Algo Trading Strategies: There are many different types of algorithmic trading strategies, but some of the most common ones include:

Market making: This strategy involves using algorithms to automatically buy and sell securities to create liquidity in the market.

Statistical Arbitrage: This strategy involves using algorithms to identify and take advantage of statistical anomalies in the market.

High-Frequency Trading (HFT): This strategy uses algorithms to execute a high volume of trades in a very short time period, typically taking advantage of small price discrepancies.

Trend Following: This strategy involves using algorithms to identify and follow trends in the market.

Mean Reversion: This strategy involves using algorithms to identify and take advantage of securities that are under- or over-valued.

Event-Driven: This strategy involves using algorithms to identify and take advantage of market-moving events such as earnings announcements, mergers and acquisitions.

Pair trading: This strategy involves using algorithms to identify pairs of securities that are highly correlated and buying and selling them to profit from their relative performance.

Risk Management: This strategy involves using algorithms to monitor and manage risk in a portfolio.

It's important to keep in mind that these strategies are not mutually exclusive, and many algorithmic trading strategies involve elements of multiple strategies. Additionally, new strategies are constantly being developed, and the effectiveness of a strategy can change over time depending on market conditions, competition, and other factors.


Monday, August 29, 2022

Oil and Gas is not dead yet

Elon Musk says the world still needs oil. “Realistically I think we need to use oil and gas in the short term, because otherwise civilization will crumble," Musk said on the sidelines of an energy conference in the southern city of Stavanger.

In my view India will need another 10-20 years after the world transition to clean energy as the technology has to be affordable for India to adopt it fully. Many ideas can be executed on that theme as the stocks are severely battered in Oil & Gas sector. Unfortunately there is not much direct play on this space in private sector. I am averse to PSU companies so ONGC, OIL, GAIL, Coal India etc are out of investing universe for me.

But there is a drilling company named Jindal drilling which can be looked at. A small oil exploration company Selan Exploration which underwent management change recently can be looked at as well. 

Adding > 10% of model portfolio to Selan exploration and ~ 3% to Jindal Drilling.

Model Portfolio: https://www.investorzclub.com/2013/03/amit-agarwals-model-portfolio.html


15 Stock Investment Tips from Rakesh Jhunjhunwala

1. Always go against tide. Buy when others are selling and sell when others are buying.  2. If you believe in the growth prospects o...