You don't need a bear market to lose money

In past 2 years what I've hated most is people telling me I should be making lot of money as market is going up since then. In fact it hasn't been that very different than my past performance. 2015 specially was quite bad for my equity investment portfolio as I am overweight some commodity companies in oil & aluminium space which had a terrible year in-spite of Nifty Sensex almost flat. That is exactly the biggest problem with general investors. When market goes up they don't participate cursing the market as gone up so much while when it comes down they wait indefinitely to catch the bottom.

You can make or lose money in any kind of market. So you don't need only a bull market to make money while even a raging bull market can make you lose a great deal of money. 

For example in a bull market you lose money if:

Where to invest in 2016?

If Nifty corrects to 7500  - 7600 levels that would be good time to start buying Nifty Bees (Goldman Sachs ETF for Nifty Index listed and traded just like any other stock) as a diversified portfolio of 50 great stocks in India. At 7500 the index would have roughly 7% earnings yield which will also be your fixed deposit yield 1 year forward. With gold & Real estate delivering negative return and thus out of Indian investors portfolio one will not have much choice but to invest in Indian equities. 

Low earnings base of current year, sharp reduction in interest rates, under utilization of factory capacities, govt. spending & reforms, and benign commodity prices will all work together in favor of Indian equities and thus provide floor. A good monsoon next year will add icing on the cake and Nifty could breach 9000 by next Diwali. 

Portfolio Update - Oct 2015

Sold couple of stocks from the portfolio and generated some cash to be deployed once market retraces some of the recent gains.

Are startups in India all about funding?

Bengaluru based food tech startup dazo shuts down due to lack of funding

Thank god I am not running after the startup frenzy aka showing prototypes & raising millions. A business is not just about how much you can raise from VCs and be billionaire on paper but keep burning cash. I believe it's about doing something you are passionate about but makes economic sense. I can sell a 1000 buck product at 500 and show a billion dollar sales in 1 year as long as I ve $500 million funding in my bank and get a 10 times sales valuation of $10 billion making myself notional billionaire. What's that?

I think in India we are repeating of what happened in U.S in 2000 and could cost India dearly. Startup.com (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ibuiUXOTE4M) documentary filmed in 1999 is an eye opener. There is nothing like doing something on your own but being a Marwari I understand the importance of starting small, scaling gradually and not do something that requires huge amount of incremental capital to start. I am an old school guy but I like to take home my profits even it's very small and use that to grow the business gradually with small doses of fresh capital. That helps me not go bust even if I do a blunder, which is bound to happen in your early stages of starting a business.

Can Cairn India and Vedanta Merger happen?

Given the current scenario in which metals and mining companies globally are facing brutal sell-off it seems highly unlikely for the Cairn and Vedanta merger to go through. Mining giant Glencore collapsed 30% in a single day on 28th Sep 2015. Vale, another Brazil based iron ore giant, is down more than 80% from it’s 2011 high. Back home we have Hindalco and Vedanta Ltd and both has corrected 65% and 75% respectively from their 2014 high. Cairn India is also a commodity company but the dynamics of crude oil is very different from metals which are recyclable. Beside that China consume 40-50% of most of the global metals produces while crude oil demand is fairly distributed.

Portfolio Update as on Sep 2015

Equity Portfolio Update after three & half months. Some minor adjustments done on existing shares and added a new name where huge value has emerged and has very favorable risk reward ratio. Please check the updated portfolio below to see all the changes:

Amit Agarwal Model Equity Portfolio

Can IDBI bank be privatized?

IDBI Bank is governed under IDBI act which was amended in 1994 to allow 49% private ownership (as shown in the extract below taken from June 2015 investor presentation). As per Memorandum of Articles of Associations minimum govt shareholding in the IDBI Bank has to be 51% (As shown in the second shapshot taken from the presentation).  Use the link in brackets to open June 2015 investor's presentation ( http://www.idbi.com/pdf/investor/IDBI_Investor_Presentation_June_2015.pdf)

Snapshot1: IDBI Bank History

Personal Finance - The James Altucher Way

James Altucher challenges conventional thoughts at every step and compel readers to think and act differently. Here is his take on personal finance and why the terms itself is a big scam in his view. 

I personally agree with him on most of the points and if you really want to get rich in your life his points need serious attention. Following is the link to his personal finance blog post:

LIC & Goldman Sachs backed Amtek Auto destroyed 80% of Investors Wealth in a Month

We all feel safe in stocks which are backed by strong Institutions and get good sleep while owning them believing nothing too bad will happen there. We assume that these institutions that pay huge salaries to hire best in class research analysts have done thorough analysis before putting money into the stock and we can safely follow them. Well in investing world nothing is safe and especially in Stocks where all the analysis is on paper while the actual show is run by the management / promoter. While following Institutions is relatively better than doing personal analysis (if you are not a very seasoned analyst), following them blindly and committing all or major portion of your capital to one single stock could bring you disaster.

Amtek Auto is one such example which is backed by some renowned institutions such as LIC & Goldman Sachs. As on 30^th June 2015 LIC held more than 8.4 million shares while Goldman Sachs had 4.2 million shares of the company. Together Institutions held over 15% of the company as on 30^th June 2015. 

Pitt Bull's Marty Schwartz Interview 2015

Must Watch Q&A session with Pitt Bull's author Marty Schwartz. The 70 years old legendary trader who was featured in the first edition of Market Wizards by Jack Schwager shares tons of wisdom and some key strategies he employed in 80's and 90's and how his trading styles have evolved with the advent of algo trading and HFTs. A bit lengthy interview but worth a watch.

Government of India Divestment Plan FY 2015 - 2016

Stocks to watch where Govt. of India has decided to divest minority stake in the fiscal year 2015-16. ONGC and IOC are among the biggest divestment candidates and are expected to fetch more than 20k crores. 

In total govt has set the target of little over Rs.46000 crores through minority stake sale of listed companies.While divestment in IOC could be little easy as the stock has been hitting life time high, thanks to the falling crude prices, but a 5% sale in ONGC appears difficult as the stock is hitting 52 week lows, thanks again to the falling crude prices.

Among the lot ONGC and Nalco appears very attractively valued at 280 and 38 bucks as on 25th July 2015 for investment purpose with at least 2 years horizon. 

Indian Companies that benefits from fall in crude oil price

60 percent fall in past one year and more than 10% fall in past one week, India being a huge energy importer benefits immensely from the crude oil price collapse. Also there are many sectors and companies withing those sectors that benefits hugely from the fall in crude oil prices. For example Paints industry is a direct beneficiary and Asian Paints in particular with very strong brand positioning. Following is the sector wise analysis on who is going to be benefited the most.

Top 10 crude oil producers in World - 10 Years chart

One magnificent chart that shows the year wise production of top 10 global crude oil producing countries for any year starting 2004 to 2014.

# Crude oil production of top 3 producing countries v.i.z U.S, Saudi Arabia and Russia is up 1.5 million barrels per day in 2014 vs 2013.

Private Sector Banks: 2014 & 2015 results at a glance

Thirteen Private sector banks reported Rs. 37,361 crores of Net Profit for the financial year ended 31st March 2015 against Rs. 31,680 crores of profit reported in the year ended 31st march 2014.

5 Reasons why LIC could say no to the Cairn Vedanta merger

1. LIC till 31st March had little over 1.5% stake in Vedanta Ltd while over 9% stake in Cairn India. If there is more value in Vedanta Ltd than Cairn India then why LIC stake in Vedanta is just over one and half percent. Also the logic of tax overhang on Cairn India for low valuation is meaningless as if the court ruling is in favor of CBDT, it is Vedanta which will have to shell out the tax and penalty amount which will be huge setback considering it's already stretched balance sheet. 

2. LIC had over 11% stake in Hindalco till 31st March 2015 and has recently increased it's stake in the company by 2% to 13%. As we all know Hindalco and Vedanta are somewhat similar company with majority of revenue coming from Aluminium and copper refining. Its must be observed that LIC is preferring Hindalco vs Vedanta for obvious reason. If the merger go through LIC would eventually have very high exposure to metals sector as it's stake in Vedanta Ltd will be go over 6%.

3. LIC currently receives around 150 crores of dividend out of it's investment in cairn India while post merger it's dividend income from swapped shares will reduce to around 70 crores per annum with relatively increased risk as Vedanta has very high amount of debt and Cairn India is a cash rich company.

Minority Shareholders against Cairn India - Vedanta Merger

The relentless fall in Cairn India share prices since past couple of months in-spite of handsome recovery in crude oil smells fishy and hints at share price rigging to benefit the Anil Agarwal group so that the residual 40% public stake in Cairn India can be swapped with least number of Vedanta Ltd shares. Cairn India being the only pure crude oil private player listed in India, existing public shareholders can benefit in no way with this reverse merger and is intended to benefit only the Vedanta group.

In an article titles "Cairn India Stock Analysis", it was really surprising how Cairn India is trading at ridiculous valuations and available at only 4 years of cash flow. Crude oil outlook will also improve in couple of years and hence long term shareholders should defeat this merger. As per SEBI act on M&A of listed companies, a minimum of 2/3rd of public shareholders approval is required. LIC and Cairn Energy PLC holds around 20% while rest is being held by MFs and public. If you are against the merger please vote below and share your comments.

Online Surveys

Cairn India Stock Analysis

Share price of Cairn India has been relentlessly falling since past 10 months and made fresh 52 week low on 12th May 2015. The stock is down more than 48% from it's 52 week high and is trading at very attractive valuation (The stock trading at roughly 37000 crores mkt cap and the company as 17000 crores of cash as on 31st March 2015). Clearly irrational exuberance is playing here on downside and investors are dumping shares on fear and panic. But a closer look at the overall health of the company and it's valuation standing vis-a-vis global peers presents a compelling opportunity for medium to long term investors. Before comparing it's valuation against a large U.S based shale oil producer, some of the key points that go in favor for investing in the company at current price of Rs.198.

15 Stock Investment Tips from Rakesh Jhunjhunwala

1. Always go against tide. Buy when others are selling and sell when others are buying. 

2. If you believe in the growth prospects of a company, invest in the stock and give it sufficient time. 

3. Be an optimist. Pessimistic investors always lose money in stock markets. 

4. Greedy investors will never make money in stock markets. Book profits after reaching your target price. 

5. Never put your hard earned money without proper research. Never invest according to “Stock tips”. 

BOI vs BOB vs PNB - Which PSB to buy?

A brief comparison of India's 2nd tier public sector banks (Bank of India, Bank of Baroda, Punjab National Bank) on parameters of total business, NPAs, restructured loans, profitability, return on equity and valuation reveals that Bank of India is trading at cheapest valuation among the lot in-spite of being largest in terms of global credit and holds promising upside potential in 2 years time-frame.

Model Portfolio: Annual Performance Review - 2015

Having started "Amit Agarwal Model Equity Portfolio" on 21st March 2013, primarily to educate investors on stock selection, diversification (risk management) & portfolio management, the practice completes it's 2nd year of existence and has come a long way in terms of popularity and acceptance among small investors/ traders/ students. 

The detailed performance review of the portfolio at market value as on 21st March 2015 is given below:

Portfolio Update - March 2015

Booked profits in couple of names and allocated the released capital to average some of the existing one and also bought couple of new scrips. The net portfolio at cost stands increased to little over Rs. 2.02 lakhs. 

The model portfolio will complete it's 2nd year on 21st March and we will gauge the performance of the portfolio at market value on that date. 

In case you are on the blog for the first time, we started the model portfolio exercise (the first of its kind in India) on 21st March 2013 with a sum of Rs.1 lakh in order to help small investors in understanding the stock selection and portfolio diversification. Also many investors follow this model portfolio closely and buy and sell stocks based on the portfolio action.

Stock Exchange explained for layman

A 3 minute video tutorial to explain the working of a typical stock exchange. If you are a beginner and want to understand what is a share, how it's traded and what role do stock exchanges play in functioning of stock market then the following video tutorial can be quite helpful. 

Stock Investing Wisdom from India's top Investors

Rakesh Jhunjhunwala, Ramesh Damani, Sujoy Bhattacharya, Ramdeo Agarwal and some of the India's most successful equity investors have learned from the likes of Benjamin Graham, Warren Buffett, Peter Lynch and have applied that knowledge in Indian Stock Markets for creating significant amount of wealth for themselves. 

Following article published in Forbes India features 20 of the most successful investors sharing their investing philosophy and success formula. 

Investing in what you understand, spotting price value mismatch during panic & euphoria, playing for the long term and sticking to quality companies & management are some of the common points mentioned by each of them.