With spectrum auction out and the M&A rules defined, the telecom sector is finally getting out of the regulatory interference which is a big positive for all the telecom players in India. Though the debt level of the sector will further rise, consolidation and tariff rationalization will make the leverage position of the sector comfortable in next 1-2 years. Both the big telecom players Bharti and Idea Cellular appears attractive for investment at current levels but Bharti Airtel in particular is very attractively poised at current price of around Rs. 290. Here is why?
1. Back of the envelope calculation suggest limited downside and reasonable upside. Lets consider following valuation points assuming around Rs.92000 crores of revenue, Rs.30000 crores of EBIDTA and net debt of Rs.60000 crores for FY-15.
@ 6 times EV/EBIDTA expected enterprise valuation = Rs.1,80,000 crores. With debt at Rs.60,000 crores, expected market value= Rs.1,20,000 translating into a market price of around Rs.300
@ 7 times EV/EBIDTA, expected enterprise valuation = Rs.2,10,000 crores. With debt at Rs.60,000 crores, expected market value= Rs.1,50,000 translating into a market price of around Rs.375
@8 times EV/EBIDTA, expected enterprise valuation = Rs.2,40,000 crores. With debt at Rs.60,000 crores, expected market value= Rs.1,80,000 translating into a market price of around Rs.450
So if one holds the stock for a year, the worst case target price for the stock is estimated at around Rs. 300 and in the best case it could be as high as Rs.450.
2. Fundamentally Bharti Airtel is further establishing it's leadership position in the market as it acquired loop telecom and became no.1 player in Mumbai as well. With 200 million plus subscriber base in India and around 30% revenue market share, Bharti Airtel could witness high revenue growth in coming years due to tariff rationalization and data growth.
3. Bharti Airtel is also in advanced stage to sell it's tower assets in Africa which could fetch around $1.5 to $2 billion and reduce it's net debt level significantly. If the deal happen in next one year it could potentially increase the market value by another 9000 crores to 10000 crores inline with the reduction in debt.
4. Rel Jio is unlikely to play price war even if it enters voice space and fear of another price war appears largely unjustified. Rel Jio might create competition in data space which will increase penetration and acceptance while voice prices for the industry should go up by at least 6-7 percent every year.
In conclusion, Bharti Airtel appears very attractively priced at around 280 - 290 levels and one can consider accumulating the stock in this range for a holding period of 2 years.
Dear Amit,
ReplyDeleteWhat is your view on the acquisition of Whatsapp by Facebook? Will these sort development, dent the earning potential of Telecom Companies?
Regards
Ujjwal
That is something that is worrying every investor and I won't deny that it also worrys me a bit but not a whole lot. Consider this, What's APP is not the only messaging application that is around for a while, there were many such apps before as well.
ReplyDeleteThe main problem with these apps is that it requires installation in both the device for communication and they are very annoying is nature and keeps draining you and your battery. Now calling facility over internet either through whatsAPP or LINE or any such app is not a replacement for high efficiency frequency which carries voice. Remember Blackberry Messanger has been around for decades, yet the company is on the verge of bankruptcy.
Above all even if some people use it aggressively they will still require internet which goes through the backbone setup by the telecom companies. If more and more people start using these apps and thus internet, it will add to the ARPUs of the company though data pack. Any which way these companies who owns the transmission and frequencies are here to stay and stay profitable.
I agree with you Amit sir but the other side we can see is after increasing the use of WHATS UP it keep down SMS facilities provided by telecom companies. However use of Internet data pack increased. so it is not surely said it will dent earnings of telecom companies
ReplyDelete